Texas State vs. Baylor Prediction: Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

    G.J. Kinne and Dave Aranda expect big things from their respective teams, and this Texas State vs. Baylor prediction tells us who has the edge.

    G.J. Kinne and Dave Aranda expect big things from their respective teams, and this game has the potential to be a fun one. The Texas State Bobcats vs. Baylor Bears prediction tells us what to watch for and which side will come out on top.

    Texas State vs. Baylor Betting and DFS Preview

    • Spread
      Baylor -27.5
    • Moneyline
      Baylor -5000, Texas State +1800
    • Over/Under
      62.5 total points
    • Game time
      7 p.m. ET
    • Location
      McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      101 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      FuboTV, Big12/ESPN+

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    Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

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    Texas State Depth Chart | Baylor Depth Chart

    • QB Blake Shapen, Baylor
    • RB Richard Reese, Baylor
    • RB Dominic Richardson, Baylor
    • WR Monaray Baldwin, Baylor
    • WR Hal Presley, Baylor
    • WR Gavin Holmes, Baylor
    • WR Ketron Jackson, Baylor
    • TE Drake Dabney, Baylor
    • QB TJ Finley, Texas State
    • QB Malik Hornsby, Texas State
    • RB Calvin Hill, Texas State
    • RB Jahmyl Jeter, Texas State
    • WR Ashtyn Hawkins, Texas State
    • WR Sean Shaw Jr., Texas State

    While there aren’t any DFS picks at the time of writing, both teams present quality fantasy plays.

    When it comes to Sun Belt play, Texas State will be a team to watch. Once the quarterback battle gets settled, invest in the winner heavily. I trust Kinne’s ability to create explosive offenses, and it all starts with the guy behind center.

    Hill and Jeter give them a solid 1-2 punch, but I’m not sure how much space they’ll find against Baylor. Same with Ashtyn Hawkins out wide.

    Baylor’s not exactly a college football fantasy player’s dream, but there’s still value in their players. If Shapen proves that he can take a step, he’s an intriguing option. Reese and Richardson will provide solid numbers to fantasy lineups due to the nature of the offense, and the receivers can have big games at times.

    Baylor’s defense, if that applies to your league, will always be an option as long as Aranda’s running the show. They’re a swarming group that plays hard and can create turnovers.

    Prediction for Texas State vs. Baylor

    Kinne’s arrival brings excitement to the Texas State fanbase, but it’s also a fanbase that’s weary of a coach who can develop an explosive offense. Jake Spavital tried to do the same thing and failed.

    The Bobcats’ new head coach did a facelift on his new team thanks to the transfer portal. Incarnate Word experienced great success with Kinne, and now Texas State hopes he can do the same for them.

    One of Kinne’s first things in the offseason was addressing the quarterback situation. He brought Malik Hornsby from Arkansas and T.J. Finley from Auburn to compete with a few others for the starting quarterback job. If Kinne can instill the magic that Lindsey Scott Jr. produced last year, Texas State’s in business.

    Talent was the area Kinne and his staff addressed this offseason. Infusing it into the program created a buzz, and now it’s time to see how much of the hype is justified.

    Baylor is ready to take care of business. After winning the Big 12 in 2021, the Bears took a step back last year. All eyes remain on Blake Shapen. He already showed growth by winning the starting job in spring ball, and he gets to utilize a quality group at the skill positions.

    Richard Reese and Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson give the Bears a solid 1-2 punch at running back. The offensive line might be retooled a little, but it should still open up plenty of running lanes for those two.

    Shapen’s success largely lands on his shoulders, but he has talent out wide to help. Monaray Baldwin, Hal Presley, and Gavin Holmes can create big plays, and Aranda’s staff added Arkansas transfer Ketron Jackson and North Texas tight end Jake Roberts, too.

    Then there’s the defense. Aranda has his handprint all over this group, and it’s easy to see. The front seven needs to help an inexperienced secondary, but the talent level remains solid. Gabe Hall and T.J. Franklin are two of the better players in the conference, and they’ll play a huge role in slowing down Texas State’s offense.

    Texas State’s on the rise, but they don’t have the talent or the depth to hang with Baylor. Unless Shapen struggles mightily, the Bears should take care of business.

    Prediction
    Baylor 38, Texas State 17

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