The Texas State Bobcats and South Alabama Jaguars have squared off nine times, with neither team managing back-to-back wins in the series so far. Each game has brought plenty of excitement, with all but one surpassing a 50-point total. Will the Bobcats finally snap the streak with consecutive victories, or will the Jaguars secure 7+ wins for the third straight season?
In our Texas State vs. South Alabama prediction, we dive deep into this intriguing matchup, providing essential betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.
Texas State vs. South Alabama Betting Preview
All Texas State vs. South Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Alabama -2 - Spread
Texas State -1.5 - Moneyline
Texas State -115, South Alabama -105 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 29 - Location
Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
ESPN+
The Jaguars are 2-1 against the spread as underdogs this year and face the same role in Week 14, as the Bobcats have been favored in every game this season. That said, Texas State is only 5-6 ATS in 2024.
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Although six of South Alabama’s last eight games have gone under the total, the over has hit in four of Texas State’s last five and in five of the past six Bobcats-Jaguars matchups.
Texas State’s Winning Probability
It’s only Year 2 of the G.J. Kinne era, but the head coach has already locked in a new seven-year deal with the Bobcats. After leading the program to an 8-5 season and a bowl victory last year, Kinne has his team sitting at 6-5 with another bowl game on the horizon. Still, he won’t be taking a Jaguars squad lightly—especially after last season’s 52-44 shootout that pushed the Bobcats to their limit.
- at South Alabama: 46.6%
South Alabama’s Winning Probability
After a successful stint as the OC and QBs coach under Kane Wommack, Major Applewhite stepped into the head coaching role when Wommack departed for the OC position with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Applewhite kept the momentum rolling, leading the Jaguars to their third consecutive bowl berth — the longest streak in the program’s brief FBS history, which began in 2012.
- vs. Texas State: 53.4%
Prediction for Texas State vs. South Alabama
Jordan McCloud. Gio Lopez. Few QB matchups on the Group of Five stage are as electrifying as this one. Recent clashes between these teams have shown that defense often takes a backseat, paving the way for offensive fireworks.
Hint: take the over. But when the dust settles, which side will prevail?
- Early-down EPA per play: South Alabama, 14th; Texas State, 15th
- EPA per dropback: South Alabama, 50th; Texas State, 42nd
- Success rate: South Alabama, 13th; Texas State, 16th
- Net points per drive: South Alabama, 25th; Texas State, 14th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
This game could very well come down to the final possession, but the edge leans toward the Bobcats both outright and against the spread. Texas State has the clear advantage on money downs, excelling offensively (25th in success rate vs. South Alabama’s 77th) and defensively (33rd vs. 40th).
Discipline could also play a pivotal role. The Jaguars have committed 20 more penalties this season, a concerning trend. While South Alabama holds a +9 turnover differential compared to Texas State’s -7, the Bobcats have the steady hand of seventh-year veteran TJ McCloud at the helm. His experience minimizes costly errors, while first-year starter Gio Lopez faces a formidable Texas State pass rush, ranked 14th nationally with 2.91 sacks per game.
All signs point to a thrilling, high-scoring battle where the Bobcats’ edge in key areas could prove decisive.
Prediction: Texas State 34, South Alabama 31
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