The Texas Longhorns are steadily progressing to earn a first-round bye in the 2024-25 College Football Playoffs. Despite being pushed in their over the Arkansas Razorbacks, the Longhorns are now eyeing the SEC Championship Game and that illustrious bye week more than ever.
Here’s how they can get both accomplished over the last two weeks of the regular season.
Texas’ SEC Championship Chances
Entering the weekend, Texas had a 33.68% chance of winning the SEC. That included a win against Arkansas in Week 12, which has already been knocked off the list. Following the victory over the Razorbacks, Texas now has a 58.43% chance of winning both of its final two games this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
So, what does that do to their chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game? In reality, the win over Arkansas didn’t move the proverbial needle a whole lot because of how much weight is being placed on the final regular season game this year.
After beating Arkansas, Texas moved their chances to make and win the SEC Championship Game from 33.68% to 35.12%.
How Can Texas Make the SEC Championship Game?
For Texas, the first step at making the SEC Championship Game this year was to beat Arkansas. They were pushed, they bent, but they did not break. In the end, they defeated Arkansas and made their road map a bit more clear.
The Longhorns continue to control their own destiny, thanks to Georgia’s loss in Week 11. For them to make the SEC Championship, it’s quite simple:
Win the remaining two games against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Doing so would put the Longhorns in the SEC Championship Game.
But who is the most likely opponent for the Longhorns in the SEC title game? We’ll know more after Georgia and Tennessee play in Week 12’s headliner.
Current SEC Standings
- 1) Tennessee Volunteers 8-1 overall (5-1 SEC)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 7-2 (5-1)
- 3) Texas Longhorns 9-1 (5-1)
- 4) Georgia Bulldogs 7-2 (5-2)
- 5) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Alabama Crimson Tide 7-2 (4-2)
- 7) Missouri Tigers 7-2 (3-2)
- 8) LSU Tigers 6-3 (3-2)
- 9) South Carolina Gamecocks 6-3 (4-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-4 (3-3)
- 12) Florida Gators 4-5 (2-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 3-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 3-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Latest Texas Playoff Probability Following Week 12
Now that the Longhorns have handled their business and we’re three weeks away from the final College Football Playoff Rankings, each team’s chances are set to get a bit higher and improve with victories in terms of playoff probability. That’s exactly what happened with Texas, however, it wasn’t a dramatic move up from last week’s percentage.
After beating Arkansas, Texas’ chances of making the College Football Playoffs moved from 53.98% to 58.50%.
Longhorns’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Longhorns, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- @ Texas A&M: 61.9%
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