Texas is 5-0 in back-to-back years for the first time since 1969-1970, and the Longhorns are prepared to keep the streak rolling into the heart of conference play. However, with the 26th most difficult strength of schedule, remaining undefeated won’t be easy.
Projecting Texas’ Remaining Schedule
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can project Texas’ remaining schedule. The Longhorns will be favored in each of their remaining seven games, and if they continue their dominance — with either Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning under center — they’ll have every opportunity to compete in the National Championship.
Texas (-16.5) vs. Oklahoma (Projection: W)
The Red River Rivalry will just mean more in 2024, with Texas and Oklahoma playing their first seasons in the SEC.
Steve Sarkisian and Brent Venables have traded blows the last two years, with the Longhorns sprinting to a 49-0 victory in 2022 and the Sooners sweating a 34-30 win in 2023.
However, this season’s Sooners don’t hold a candle to last year’s offensively, with former five-star QB Jackson Arnold being benched for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. — hence Texas’ 89.1% win probability.
Texas (-3.5) vs. Georgia (Projection: W)
Although these two programs have only played five times, history favors Texas, which has four wins in the all-time matchup, including a 28-21 victory in their last meeting in 2019.
If the Longhorns handle the Bulldogs, similar to how Alabama did last week, their win-out (31.3%), win-the-conference (37.3%), and win-the-natty (15.0%) probabilities would soar through the roof.
Texas (-21.5) @ Vanderbilt (Projection: W)
Sure, Texas and Vanderbilt haven’t played since 1928, but the Commodores hold an 8-3-1 series advantage. But 2024 won’t be so kind to the SEC’s bottom-dweller, with the Longhorns owning a 94.3% win probability.
Texas (-23.5) vs. Florida (Projection: W)
The Gators have never beaten the Longhorns. Unfortunately, this season won’t be any different, especially with Billy Napier at the helm. Graham Mertz. DJ Lagway. Doesn’t matter, Longhorns by 24+.
Texas (-16) @ Arkansas (Projection: W)
Texas and Arkansas are familiar with each other, dating back to their days in the now-defunct Southwest Conference.
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Texas has owned the series at 56-23, but Arkansas has taken the last two. With Sam Pittman possibly coaching for his job, Sarkisian and Co. would do well to keep their eye on the game instead of peeking toward the College Football Playoff.
Texas (-18) vs. Kentucky (Projection: W)
Texas and Kentucky have only met once, with the Longhorns winning the 7-6 barnburner in 1951. The Wildcats not only took Georgia the distance, but they followed that contest up with a 20-17 victory over Ole Miss.
They’ll want to do the same to Texas, but the Longhorns’ offense is simply on another level, and Kentucky’s run-heavy approach won’t be able to keep up.
Texas (-11) @ Texas A&M (Projection: W)
The Aggies and Longhorns haven’t faced off since 2011, as Texas A&M left the Big 12 for the SEC. However, with Texas following 13 years later, the battle for the Lone Star State resumes.
Kyle Field will be electric and is easily one of the most hostile environments in all of college football. Yet, the Longhorns simply have too much talent, leading to a 79.6% win probability — although, you can never predict what will happen in fierce rivalry games.
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