A growing recruiting rivalry takes center stage on Dec. 27 as the Texas A&M Aggies face off against the USC Trojans in the Las Vegas Bowl. These teams, both decimated by the portal, will be fighting for some momentum as they close out a five-game slate on Friday night.
Check out our Texas A&M vs. USC prediction to see which team comes out on top.
Texas A&M vs. USC Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview
All Texas A&M vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -9 - Spread
Texas A&M -3.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -166, USC +140 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Friday, Dec. 27, 10:30 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, NV - How To Watch
ESPN
While Texas A&M will miss a few players due to opt-outs before the 2025 NFL Draft or transfer portal, the Trojans will be shells of themselves, with up to 10 key contributors missing the game.
The line on this game has moved but only slightly. After starting at a near pick ’em, the line has moved to Texas A&M -3.5 and could continue to move in that direction if the Trojans have more opt-outs. The total has moved up slightly, from 50.5 to 51.5.
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is much more bullish on the Aggies, making Texas A&M a nine-point favorite. Their 74.9% winning probability is the third-highest percentage of the bowl season.
- vs. USC: 74.9%
USC’s Winning Probability
Based on the Aggies’ winning probability, the Trojans are obviously significant underdogs. USC has been in every game this season, with just one loss by more than seven points, a 14-point loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to end the season in which the Trojans threw multiple 99-yard pick-sixes in the fourth quarter.
- vs. Texas A&M: 25.1%
Prediction for Texas A&M vs. USC
USC has a winning problem, and judging by the mass departures in the transfer portal, they might also have a culture problem.
Head coach Lincoln Riley made the bold move to bench starting quarterback Miller Moss after nine games, citing turnover issues. The change didn’t help much—backup Jayden Maiava fumbled twice and threw three pick-sixes in the final three games of the season.
Riley’s regular-season record is stellar, but his 2-7 postseason mark is becoming harder to overlook. To make matters worse, the Trojans head into the Las Vegas Bowl without their top two running backs and top three receivers.
The outlook isn’t much brighter for their opponent. After starting 7-1 under Mike Elko, Texas A&M climbed to 10th in the College Football Playoff rankings, only to lose three of their final four games in wildly different ways.
The Aggies unraveled against South Carolina, allowing the Gamecocks to ride momentum to a 24-point blowout. Two weeks later, they couldn’t stop Auburn—a team that floundered offensively in nearly every other game. And with a shot at the SEC Championship and CFP still alive, the Aggies couldn’t muster any offensive rhythm against Texas.
What began as a promising season ended in a disappointing trip to the Las Vegas Bowl.
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Off the field, these programs have gone head-to-head on the recruiting trail. USC flipped top-10 quarterback Husan Longstreet from Texas A&M, only for the Aggies to strike back, flipping receiver Jerome Myles from the Trojans just days later.
Now, they’ll take the fight to the field in a game that feels pivotal for both programs’ futures.
Both teams are desperate to build momentum heading into the offseason, but only one will emerge with the win. USC rarely gets blown out, but I have major doubts about their ability to close out tight games—this could be the one where things truly unravel.
Take Texas A&M and the points. USC’s offense will struggle without its top skill players, and while the Aggies are missing key pass rushers, the Trojans lack the running game or deep-threat weapons to capitalize.
Marcel Reed’s mobility could be the X-factor for a Texas A&M offense that’s been wildly inconsistent this season. Look for the Aggies to start fast and deliver a deflating blow to the Trojans.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, USC 17
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