After Week 1, it seemed both the Texas A&M Aggies and South Carolina Gamecocks were in for a tough season. But each team quickly bounced back, and now they’re hitting their stride.
The Aggies come in as favorites, yet Williams-Brice Stadium is never an easy venue. After narrow losses to LSU and Alabama, the Gamecocks are hungry to knock off a ranked opponent. With a tight line, does South Carolina have what it takes to secure the win? Here’s our take on the Texas A&M vs. South Carolina matchup.
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Texas A&M vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -11 - Spread
Texas A&M -3 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -142, South Carolina +120 - Over/Under
44 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium | Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Despite the Aggies being undefeated since Week 2 and coming off a huge win over LSU, Vegas opened this game with a meager four-point spread. Bettors jumped all over it, but maybe not in the way you’d think. It’s already moved down to 2.5 points, including a half-point move in the last hour before this writing.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Aggies are currently 2.5-point road favorites. The total of 44.5 points is indicative of the strength of each defense, and the combination of a low total and tight spread suggests a tightly contested, grind-it-out type of game. Vegas implies a final score close to 24-21 in favor of the Aggies.
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is much higher on the Aggies in this one than the sportsbooks. The Aggies are heavy favorites, per the metric, with an implied spread of over 11 points and a winning probability of 80.2%.
The metric makes Texas A&M heavy favorites in three of the final four before a toss-up game against rival Texas to end the year.
- at South Carolina: 80.2%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 88.1%
- vs. Texas: 50.2%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM is not as high on South Carolina as many others, giving the Gamecocks just a 19.8% chance to win and making them underdogs in four of their last five games.
Needing two wins for bowl eligibility, FPM thinks South Carolina will need to steal a win down the stretch to make the postseason.
- vs. Texas A&M: 19.8%
- at Vanderbilt: 35.4%
- vs. Missouri: 47.2%
- vs. Wofford: 98.8%
- at Clemson: 17.4%
Prediction for Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
As a South Carolina grad, I’ve never felt more in tune with the Gamecocks’ season—going 7-0 on straight-up USC picks and 6-1 against the spread.
This game feels like a true turning point for South Carolina. Mike Elko’s teams have a knack for hitting their stride as the season progresses, as we saw against LSU last week when he completely outmaneuvered Brian Kelly in the second half.
A big standout adjustment? Benching starting QB Conner Weigman in favor of dual-threat sophomore Marcel Reed, who stepped up earlier this season when Weigman was sidelined.
With Texas A&M down 17-7 in the third quarter, Reed came in and immediately made an impact, scoring on his first touch and leading the Aggies to a stunning 31-6 second-half domination over LSU.
While it’s unclear if this switch is permanent, one thing’s for sure: South Carolina’s defensive line is the toughest the Aggies have faced all season. I’d even say the Gamecocks boast the best pass rush in the country.
Just two weeks ago, South Carolina racked up nine sacks from nine different players against Oklahoma. But they face a new test with one of their first truly run-heavy opponents. The last time the Gamecocks went up against a team as committed to the ground game, they took a 27-3 loss to Ole Miss—also at home, and fresh off a bye.
Against Ole Miss, Shane Beamer played his usual aggressive, underdog style. But honestly, I think he’s realizing that he doesn’t need to approach every game that way with this team. They can match up against quality opponents and play straight up.
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That’s exactly what he did against Oklahoma, leaning on a dominant defense and managing the clock in the second half, knowing the Sooners had no shot unless the Gamecocks handed it to them.
Now, the Aggies pose a tougher challenge, and I have some doubts about South Carolina’s consistency in the run game against Texas A&M’s front seven. Still, the Gamecocks have held their own against top teams, only slipping up when turnovers and offensive mistakes came into play.
Personally, I’d start Reed at QB; Weigman’s lack of mobility makes him a target for South Carolina’s pass rush. But if the Gamecocks’ defensive line and linebackers stay disciplined in their gaps, they can force the Aggies into passing situations, where this defense thrives.
The key stat from the Oklahoma game? Zero turnovers for USC.
If they replicate that here, Texas A&M will struggle to drive the length of the field against this elite Gamecocks front.
I’m picking the Gamecocks for a classic Beamer upset: a home win with an unexpectedly strong offensive showing.
Prediction: South Carolina 28, Texas A&M 21
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