It’s a win, and they’re in for the Texas A&M Aggies, but what happens down the stretch should have major implications for the rest of the SEC Championship Game contenders. The Aggies control their own destiny and could cause some serious chaos with two straight victories to close out the year.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Chances
After Week 12, the Aggies now have a 17.31% chance to make and win the SEC Championship. That’s because they still have to beat arch-rival Texas in the final game of the regular season and get by Auburn in Week 13 to do so.
Texas A&M is a heavy favorite against the Tigers next week but an underdog as it stands right now to the Longhorns. If they were to drop the game to the Longhorns, then they’d hit the tiebreaking scenarios with at least Georgia and perhaps a few other teams.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Fortunately for A&M, they have a favorable slate of tiebreakers that could fall in their favor if they do drop a game down the stretch.
How Can Texas A&M Make the SEC Championship Game?
First things first, if A&M wants to make the SEC Championship Game, just win out. Our CFN Football Playoff Meter gives A&M just a 34.32% chance to win out, mainly because of their current underdog status to Texas.
If A&M were to drop a game, it would depend on who that game is to, solely because of the tiebreakers. If they lose to Auburn but beat Texas, then they have the tiebreaker over the Longhorns when it comes to head-to-head competition. They would then square off against Georgia — at least — when it comes to making the SEC Championship.
As Texas A&M didn’t play Georgia this year, the head-to-head results are thrown out. The second tiebreaker states record again common conference opponents. Those teams are Florida (both won), Mississippi State (both won), Auburn (Georgia won already), and Texas (Georgia won already).
Unfortunately for Aggies’ fans, that common conference opponents’ head-to-head record doesn’t stack up with Georgia’s 4-0 mark over common opponents if the Aggies were to lose to one of their final two opponents. And Georgia is locked in as a team to finish in the tiebreaker slot given they’ve wrapped up SEC play already at 6-2 overall.
Win ’em all, Texas A&M. You can make it with a loss, but you need some other help if so. It’s much safer to just finish 2-0 down the stretch and punch your own ticket.
Current SEC Standings
- 1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 (5-1)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
- 3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
- 4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
- 5) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (5-3)
- 8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
- 9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
- 12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Latest Texas A&M Playoff Probability Following Week 12
They control their own destiny to the SEC Championship Game, but they don’t quite have the same luxury with the College Football Playoffs. According to the CFN FPM, Texas A&M has a 17.10% chance to make the playoffs, almost exactly their total of winning the SEC.
That means the sim doesn’t like A&M to finish as a top-12 team without making and subsequently winning the SEC given the other parameters and Group of Five representative (or multi-loss Big 12 winner) grabbing what could be an at-large spot for a two or three-loss SEC team.
It’s not out of the picture, but a loss to Auburn or Texas really crushes A&M’s season down the stretch.
Aggies’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Aggies, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- @ Auburn: 83.5%
- vs. Texas: 41.1%
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