Whisper it quietly, but Mike Elko might be about to do something Jimbo Fisher could never do. After crushing the Missouri Tigers in an early college football Week 6 eye-opener, the Texas A&M Aggies will likely soar up the AP Poll Top 25 and into College Football Playoff contention. The crazy thing? Their road to the postseason tournament is as clear as a Texas fall sky.
Texas A&M’s College Football Playoff Odds
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can project Texas A&M’s remaining schedule. Despite their performance against Notre Dame to start the season, the Aggies are now a legitimate contender to reach the College Football Playoff after humbling Missouri on Saturday afternoon.
Their schedule currently ranks 27th in the nation as per CFN’s Strength of Schedule, but by SEC standards, that is easily manageable, and as you can see by the projected spread lines for the rest of the season, they could enter their season finale — a much-awaited clash with bitter rivals Texas — with a win-and-in scenario for the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M (-17.5) @ Mississippi State (Projection: W)
While Texas A&M has quickly adapted and flourished under Elko, another SEC team isn’t enjoying the same immediate success under a new head coach. Jeff Lebby’s team are 1-4 ahead of their Week 7 clash with the Georgia Bulldogs, and will face an Aggies team feeling fresh off a bye. That week of rest could be pivotal for Conner Weigman after his first start since Week 2.
Texas A&M (-1.5) vs. LSU (Projection: W)
This will be the first potential stumbling block for Texas A&M and their College Football Playoff odds. Similar to the Aggies, the LSU Tigers were 4-1 ahead of their Week 6 bye, with a Week 1 loss the only blip on their 2024 college football resume. Garrett Nussmeier led the SEC in passing touchdowns coming into this week, and poses a problem for any defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Brian Kelly’s team have proved to be dubious defensively and are yet to face a true test since losing star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to injury. If Weigman can carve up the Missouri defense, he could make a real mess of the Tigers. Homefield advantage drives a 52.5% winning percentage for the Aggies.
Texas A&M (-6.75) @ South Carolina (Projection: W)
Texas A&M will enter this matchup with a 9-1 head-to-head advantage over the South Carolina Gamecocks. Although they lost the last time they traveled to Columbia, the CFN FPM gives them a 68.8% chance of getting the win here. Weigman and the offense will have to overcome a dynamic defensive end duo, but should be able to go toe-to-toe with the Gamecocks.
Texas A&M (-26) vs. New Mexico State (Projection: W)
The battle of the Aggies! New Mexico State had success against the SEC a year ago, beating a bad Auburn team behind quarterback Diego Pavia. Now, Pavia is gone, and this NMSU team is no longer the CUSA contender we witnessed in 2023.
With a 96.6% chance of winning per CFN FPM, this is comfortably the easiest game remaining on the Texas A&M schedule. They should be 9-1 at this point, with their College Football Playoff odds reducing every single week.
Texas A&M (-10.5) @ Auburn (Projection: W)
Perhaps the Auburn Tigers will get it together down the stretch. Perhaps Payton Thorne will turn a corner and become a game-winning quarterback. Perhaps Hugh Freeze will have his team playing exciting football that doesn’t make you want to rip your own eyes out of your head.
Perhaps. Until we see evidence of answers to those rhetorical questions, Texas A&M will travel to the Plains as a substantial favorite. The CFN FPM gives them a touchdown, field goal, and change advantage for the Nov. 23 clash. The Aggies have won three of the last four matchups between the two teams.
Texas A&M (4.25) vs. Texas (Projection: L)
How awesome would it be if this game, this long-awaited scheduling of the two Texas college football powerhouses, had implications for both teams? The Longhorns have long been favored as a College Football Playoff team, and heading into Week 6, had the highest percentage chance of winning the SEC (37.1%) and making the College Football Playoff (90.7%).
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As such, the Aggies are a projected underdog. The 4.25-point spread line projects to a 37.4% chance of Elko’s team upsetting Steve Sarkisian’s team, who have proven deadly with either Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning under center. Thanks to the new 12-team format, however, a defeat here (presuming the rest of the season goes as above) might not be a deathknoll.
There is every chance that a 10-2 SEC outfit makes it to the College Football Playoff. After embarrassing Missouri in Week 6, that team might well be Texas A&M.
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