Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face Karolina Muchova in the semifinals of the Brisbane International 2026. Sabalenka’s title defense started with a dominant 6-0, 6-1 win over Cristina Bucsa. She followed it up with routine wins over Sorana Cirstea and Madison Keys.
Muchova fought past Ajla Tomljanovic in three sets to begin her campaign in Brisbane. She upset seventh seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in straight sets in the next round. She scored a three-set win over third seed Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, snapping her 13-match winning streak in the process.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Head-to-Head & Matchup
Muchova leads their rivalry 3-1. Sabalenka won their very first meeting at the WTA Elite Trophy 2019 in straight sets. Muchova has won their next three matches, all in three sets. She even saved two match points in the semifinals of the French Open 2023. Their most recent meeting took place at the China Open 2024.
Sabalenka has won an average of 76 percent of her points behind her first serve this week. She also hasn’t lost more than three games per set so far. Muchova, on the other hand, has won an average of 67 percent of her first serve points in Brisbane.
Sabalenka has also done well on return, winning 54 percent of points on an average compared to the 47 percent of points won by Muchova. The latter has also been tested every step of the way, and since all of her wins in this match-up have gone the distance, she could be in for another long tussle.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Expert Prediction, Top Bets & Odds
Sabalenka is looking quite sharp in Brisbane, and is yet to drop a set. She extended her winning streak to eight matches at the tournament, and improved her record in Australia to 36-2, starting from her run at the Adelaide International 2023. Given her past struggles against Muchova, this seems like her best chance to score a win against her.
Two of Muchova’s three matches in Brisbane have been three-set affairs. Given her history with injuries, she might not want to push herself too hard if she gets dragged into another dogfight, especially with the Australian Open on the horizon. She has also lost her last four semifinal matches.
Even though Muchova has dominated this match-up, Sabalenka’s current form and record in Australia makes her the favorite to triumph this time. She won her very first match against Muchova in straight sets, and unless her current level dips by a fair margin, she should be able to the same once again.
Top bets: The match will have at least 24 games, along with one tie-break.
| Player | Moneyline | Handicap Bets | Total Games |
| Aryna Sabalenka | |||
| Karolina Muchova |
(Odds will be added once they’re available)
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.
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