Most college football experts thought that it would be the Tennessee Volunteers feeling the pressure going into their Week 12 showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs, but it’s Georgia that is feeling the heat after losing in Oxford, Miss., to the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday.
The Volunteers can cement themselves as a College Football Playoff team, while the Bulldogs will look to avoid a third loss, effectively eliminating them from postseason contention. Can the Bulldogs rise to the occasion? Find out which way we lean in this Tennessee vs. Georgia prediction.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -4 - Spread
Georgia -9.5 - Moneyline
Georgia -375, Tennessee +295 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium | Athens, Ga. - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The former SEC East rivals take one another on in one of the most important games of the entire regular season. Both of these teams have dreams of reaching the College Football Playoff, but it’s unlikely the loser will make the top 12.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 49 points and a spread of 9.5 points, Vegas expects Georgia to hold Tennessee’s offense in check. The implied final score is close to 29-20 in favor of the Bulldogs.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Volunteers are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has a 38.1% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the hardest remaining game of the year for the Volunteers, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Georgia: 38.1%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has a 61.9% chance of beating the Volunteers at home. The Bulldogs’ path to the College Football Playoff got a bit more difficult after a loss to Ole Miss on Saturday
- vs. Tennessee: 61.9%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Georgia
I won’t bury the lede: The Georgia Bulldogs are not 10 points better than the Tennessee Volunteers, and the only question I have is whether I’m going to sprinkle the moneyline for the road underdogs.
Take the G off of Georgia’s helmet and you’ll see a team that has played one solid game all season. Sure, the Bulldogs have the talent to outlast other teams, but they haven’t looked particularly strong outside of a great game against Texas.
If Georgia’s defensive line puts on a similar display to that game on Saturday, the Bulldogs can cover. But I really like the Volunteers’ running game and think they can stay out of obvious passing situations, unlike Texas.
It’s taken us a while to come around to the reality of a power-running, defensive-minded Tennessee team, but that’s what this group is. I think the Volunteers’ defensive line is good enough to generate a lot of pressure against the Bulldogs.
If that’s the case, it’s a blowout. Over the past three weeks, Carson Beck has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the history of major college football against pressure.
In his last three games, Beck hasn’t been pressured all that often, just 37 times in 125 dropbacks, but it’s what he’s done on those 37 pressures that bring concern. Beck has just eight completions with seven sacks and five interceptions. That’s good for a passer rating of 0.0
Unless he completely turns it around, or Tennessee somehow doesn’t pressure the quarterback, the Georgia offense could be in trouble.
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I’ll gladly admit I was wrong if one of those two things happens, but I don’t see it. Instead, I think Tennessee pressures him and forces Beck into mistakes.
Tennessee can control the clock when on offense, so a few drive-enders would go a long way toward the upset.
Nico Iamaleava’s injury status could change this, but if we take Josh Heupel at his word, it sounds like Tennessee’s quarterback will be just fine. If he can hit a deep ball or two, Tennessee will win this game.
It’s really hard to bet against Kirby Smart, but I just don’t think he has one of his stronger teams this year, even if that doesn’t make sense on paper.
Let’s call it an upset. Tennessee controls the clock and forces a few Georgia turnovers in a low-scoring road win.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Georgia 20
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