The Tennessee Volunteers were delivered some bad news on Saturday night following the results from around the SEC. Thanks to uncontrollable outside factors, the Vols don’t control their own destiny, but they should be considered a near-lock for the College Football Playoffs at this rate, right?
Tennessee’s SEC Championship Chances
After Week 13, the Volunteers have been officially eliminated from the SEC Championship Game. This is despite sitting tied for second place with Georgia and Texas A&M, and independent of what they do in Week 14 versus Vanderbilt.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Tennessee can still make the playoffs, but after the results of Week 13, they have been eliminated from contention for the SEC Championship this season.
Why Is Tennessee Eliminated From the SEC Championship?
Unfortunately for Tennessee, nothing they did in Week 13 eliminated them from the championship game, rather, it was results from around the rest of the SEC that thwarted their chances. Let me break that down for you in as simple terms as possible why Tennessee is out despite winning against UTEP and sitting tied for second place with one game left.
Even if Tennessee wins against Vanderbilt, they’ll still remain tied with Georgia for second place. So, let’s say Tennessee loses to Vandy, they’re out; but if they win vs. Vandy, they stay at least tied with Georgia for second place.
Due to Georgia’s victory over Tennessee earlier in the season, the Bulldogs own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Vols.
But what if Texas loses to A&M? That would create a four-way tie for first place with Tennessee, Georgia, A&M, and Texas. But, in that situation, you have to work through all the tiebreaking scenarios to start eliminating teams.
And in those tiebreaking scenarios, you get all the way down to tiebreaker No. 4, analyzing each tied team’s SEC opponent in-conference win percentage. And that’s where Tennessee falters:
- Texas A&M SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Texas SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- Tennessee SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
Texas A&M would get the first ticket to the game and then Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee would go back to the top of the tiebreaking scenarios.
And in that case, Georgia gets the nod since they beat both Texas and Tennessee in the regular season.
No matter the results in Week 14, Tennessee is out of the SEC Championship Game, but still very much alive for the College Football Playoffs.
How Can Tennesssee Make the College Football Playoffs?
At this point, Tennessee can guarantee themselves a spot in the College Football Playoffs with a win against Vanderbilt in Week 14. Considering they found themselves ranked No. 11 before the week started and two teams ahead of them in the rankings lost, it would be a shock to see the Vols crack the top 10 and sit at No. 9 come the next rankings.
Tennessee is actually set to be the barometer at how much the committee weighs Indiana’s loss to Ohio State. Will the committee move a 9-2 SEC team like Tennessee above a one-loss Big Ten team like Indiana?
The Vols should be in a lot of the talk come Tuesday night.
Latest Tennessee Playoff Probability Following Week 13
The Vols entered the week with a 32.84% chance to make the playoffs based on our simulation model. That number has now rocketed up over 75% thanks to the essential nature that they are in a win-and-they’re-in situation in Week 14.
Given the fact that Tennessee has a heavy chance to defeat Vanderbilt in Week 14, it should be no surprise that the Vols’ playoff chances took such a shot up.
Volunteers’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Volts, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Vanderbilt: 80.6%
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