The College Football Playoffs finish their first-round games with one of the most compelling matchups: the Tennessee Volunteers vs. the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Will the Volunteers prove they’re ready to take the next step toward sustained success? Or will Ryan Day and the Buckeyes bounce back from the sting of their fourth straight loss to the Michigan Wolverines? Let’s break it all down and predict how Tennessee vs. Ohio State will play out.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State College Football Playoff First-Round Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -5 - Spread
Ohio State -7 - Moneyline
Ohio State -285, Tennessee +230 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH - How To Watch
ABC
Though these two teams have been around for over a century, they’ve only ever met once — a New Year’s Day 1996 Citrus Bowl clash. The Volunteers won that one, 20-14, and will look for a similar result on the road this time.
There hasn’t been much early-line movement, with the spread hovering around 7.5 points in favor of the Buckeyes. Vegas expects a low-scoring game between two defenses. This is Tennessee’s first College Football Playoff appearance, compared to Ohio State’s fifth.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Volunteers, making them underdogs of only five points. That translates to a winning probability of 35.4%.
Weather could be an issue for the road Volunteers, led by Southern California-raised quarterback Nico Iamaleava. If the Volunteers pulled off the upset, they’d face the Oregon Ducks on their path to the national championship.
- at Ohio State: 35.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Buckeyes are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 64.6%. They’ll want to defend their home field and make a deep run into the College Football Playoff. Just like with Tennessee, if the Buckeyes win, they’d face Oregon on their path to the national championship.
- vs. Tenneessee: 57.4%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Ohio State
The first-round clash between Tennessee and Ohio State has all the makings of the most exciting opening College Football Playoff matchup. In my view, two factors will likely determine the outcome: team identity and the weather.
Let’s start with Ohio State’s offensive approach—or lack thereof. Are Chip Kelly and Ryan Day hesitant to trust quarterback Will Howard, or are they underestimating the firepower of their elite receiving corps?
Look no further than their game against Michigan. Howard attempted 33 passes, but only 10 went beyond 10 air yards. This, despite facing a Wolverines secondary riddled with injuries and an obvious mismatch Ohio State failed to exploit.
Was it a miscalculation or a conscious decision to avoid risks? Either way, it backfired—they managed just 10 points.
On the defensive side, the Buckeyes couldn’t contain Michigan’s straightforward rushing attack. That’s a major red flag heading into a showdown with Tennessee—a team cut from the same cloth but with even more firepower.
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Tennessee feels like Michigan 2.0—a polished version with a better offensive line, running back, quarterback, and defensive line, all playing the same brand of physical football.
If Ohio State can’t figure out how to stop the run, this discussion could be over before it begins.
Still, Tennessee isn’t without its own concerns—specifically, the weather. Nico Iamaleava, a Southern California native, hasn’t had much exposure to cold conditions. While it’s too early to know the exact forecast, snow could be in play. How will the young quarterback handle frigid temperatures?
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Ohio State will be banking on the weather creating issues for Tennessee. Beyond their experience and big-game pedigree, the Buckeyes are up against a Volunteers squad that looks superior across nearly every facet of the game. Plus, Tennessee is getting plenty of points in this one.
I’ve already jumped on Tennessee +7.5 and may sprinkle some on the moneyline, depending on how the forecast shapes up.
To Ohio State’s credit, their passing attack is capable of moving the ball. But Tennessee’s defensive line is more than equipped to disrupt a Buckeyes offensive line that hasn’t fully gelled. That said, I trust Kelly to draw up plays for stars like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
If this game comes down to the wire, Ohio State’s experience could swing things their way. But from a betting angle, I’m all in on Tennessee. The Volunteers should cover, and don’t be surprised if this thriller sneaks over the total.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 23
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