The Tennessee Volunteers, joined by the College GameDay crew, head to Athens in Week 12 for a high-stakes showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs—a clash loaded with SEC and College Football Playoff implications. With Kirby Smart’s squad slipping out of the latest 12-team CFP bracket, are we on the verge of a changing of the guard?
Our Tennessee vs. Georgia prediction dives into every detail of this pivotal matchup—from the betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as the 2024 college football season reaches its peak.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -4 - Spread
Georgia -9 - Moneyline
Georgia -325, Tennessee +260 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium | Athens, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
If you want a graphic demonstration of how seismic a Tennessee win in Week 12 would be, take one look at the history of this all-SEC clash. While the 28-23-2 advantage the Bulldogs hold heading into the 54th edition might seem slender, Georgia is on a seven-game winning streak. The Volunteers haven’t won in Athens since 2016 but could end that run on Saturday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The oddsmakers have Kirby Smart’s team as a 10-point favorite, likely buoyed by uncertainty around Tennessee starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The CFN FPM makes the game tighter, and our prediction goes one step further in examining what the Vols could accomplish in Week 12. Georgia is just 2-7 against the spread this season. Tennessee is 5-4 ATS in 2024.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Volunteers are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has a 38.1% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the hardest remaining game of the year for the Volunteers, who would likely make the SEC title game by winning out.
- at Georgia: 38.1%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has a 61.9% chance of beating the Volunteers at home. The Bulldogs’ path to the College Football Playoff got a bit more difficult after a loss to Ole Miss on Saturday
- vs. Tennessee: 61.9%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Georgia
I won’t sugarcoat it: The Georgia Bulldogs are not 10 points better than the Tennessee Volunteers. The real question is whether I’m bold enough to sprinkle something on the moneyline for the road underdogs.
Take away the “G” on Georgia’s helmet, and you’re left with a team that’s played one truly impressive game all season. Sure, the Bulldogs have the talent to outlast opponents, but outside of their strong showing against Texas, they haven’t been particularly dominant.
If Georgia’s defensive line replicates its Texas performance this Saturday, they might cover. But I’m banking on Tennessee’s run game to keep them out of obvious passing downs—something Texas couldn’t do.
It’s taken time, but Tennessee has fully embraced its identity as a power-running, defensive-minded team. And that defensive line has what it takes to bring serious pressure against Georgia.
If Tennessee’s front can disrupt Carson Beck, things could get ugly quickly. Over the past three weeks, Beck has struggled massively under pressure, ranking among the worst quarterbacks in major college football in those situations.
In his last three games, Beck hasn’t faced overwhelming pressure—just 37 pressures on 125 dropbacks. But his response has been concerning: eight completions, seven sacks, and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 0.0 under duress. Unless Beck makes a dramatic turnaround or Tennessee fails to bring pressure, Georgia’s offense could be in trouble.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
I’ll admit I’m wrong if one of those things happens, but I’m betting on Tennessee to bring the heat and force Beck into mistakes.
On the offensive side, Tennessee’s ability to control the clock will be key, and a few drive-ending plays on defense could swing this game in their favor.
Nico Iamaleava’s health could factor into this matchup, but trusting Josh Heupel, Tennessee’s quarterback should be ready to go. If Iamaleava can land a couple of deep shots, the Volunteers will have the edge.
Betting against Kirby Smart is never easy, especially with the “disrespected” narrative he can play after the College Football Playoff rankings. But this Georgia team doesn’t feel as strong as its talent suggests on paper.
Here’s my call: an upset. Tennessee forces turnovers, controls the tempo, and grinds out a low-scoring road win over Georgia.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Georgia 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.