As Week 4 arrives, so does the renewed tradition of early-season rivalries. The TCU Horned Frogs will make the short trip across town to face the SMU Mustangs, in the Battle for the Iron Skillet.
Both teams are 2-1, aiming to stay above .500. Who has the advantage in our TCU vs. SMU prediction?
TCU vs. SMU Betting Preview
All TCU vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, September 21, 2024.
- Spread
TCU -2 - Moneyline
TCU -125, SMU +105 - Over/Under
59 - Game time
5:00 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
98 degrees, 7 mph winds, mostly sunny and hot - How to Watch
The CW Network
Both teams know how to put points on the board, and we’ll see who can do it with more consistency this week. However, with a total of 59 and both squads posting better than 30 points a game, the over might look nice here until you realize the bulk of those points for SMU came in a 59-7 win over Houston Christian.
The Frogs lost a close one to UCF by a score of 35-34 and have consistently put up points, but they are 0-3 against the spread this year, which makes a tight -2 line in their favor too close for comfort. Moneyline would be the play here, depending on which side you lean.
Prediction for TCU vs. SMU
The Horned Frogs nearly had a perfect start to the season, beating Stanford and Long Island, but a missed last-minute kick allowed UCF’s 15 fourth-quarter points to be the difference.
SMU has yet to really figure themselves out, however. After struggling a bit in the season-opening Week 0 matchup against Nevada, they righted the ship against Houston Christian. But a midweek game against BYU that saw them muster only field goals on offense is a bit concerning.
For the Mustangs, the offense has struggled, and while Kevin Jennings has replaced Preston Stone at quarterback, production remains limited. Jennings will make his first start, and his 6.4 yards per rush could be why he’s getting the nod, despite averaging just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
Josh Hoover has played well for the Horned Frogs, throwing for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns with a lovely zero interceptions. TCU has not found a ground game though, and it hurt last Saturday against UCF.
Neither team has looked particularly stout defensively, and while TCU started out strong against UCF, it was a late-game blown lead that will leave some question marks going into this week. The one area SMU might have an advantage is in creating turnovers — they’ve done it five times this year to the Horned Frogs’ two.
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It comes down to offensive firepower in this one. For TCU, the play of Hoover is a safer bet than that of Jennings, and the Frogs’ offense will be just that much better because of it. That should give TCU the win in a fun in-state matchup between two schools less than an hour apart.
Prediction: TCU 30, SMU 27
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