The highlight of Friday night’s action features the Syracuse Orange hitting the road to face a UNLV Rebels squad generating buzz both on and off the field. With various outcomes in play, who comes out on top when Syracuse and UNLV clash in the entertainment capital of the world?
Our Syracuse vs. UNLV prediction breaks down the game, analyzes the latest betting odds, and projects each team’s winning probabilities for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Syracuse vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All Syracuse vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -5.5 - Spread
UNLV -6 - Moneyline
UNLV -230, Syracuse +190 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, NV - Predicted Weather at Kick
75.2 degrees, mainly clear and warm, 5.6mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
Allegiant Stadium hosts the first-ever matchup between Syracuse and UNLV and it comes at a pivotal time for both programs. After the departure of long-time head coach Dino Babers, Fran Brown has had an instant impact on the program. Meanwhile, the Rebels are enjoying unprecedented success, with the Mountain West title in play and a legitimate College Football Playoff shot.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Alongside a 4-0 winning record, UNLV is one of just 10 teams remaining who are perfect against the spread in 2024. Syracuse is currently on the opposite end of the spectrum, going 1-3 against the spread. It’s worth noting the Orange covered the only time they were an underdog this fall. With a combined 5-3 in favor of the under, it might be worth avoiding the 59.5-point line.
Syracuse’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Syracuse has a 34.9% chance of winning this must-watch clash on Friday night. While that makes the Orange slightly less of an underdog than the current odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, they are an underdog nonetheless.
Previous winning probabilities from the CFN FPM for Syracuse this season correctly projected their current 3-1 record, and here’s how Syracuse’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at UNLV: 34.9%
- at NC State: 50.4%
- at Pittsburgh: 35.9%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 53.8%
- at Boston College: 38.9%
- at California: 50.6%
- vs. UConn: 87.2%
- at Miami (FL): 24.7%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Syracuse would end the season with either a 6-6 or 7-5 record, depending on how you split the road game at Cal. In a conference dominated by Miami (FL) and Clemson, the Orange have a 3.4% chance of winning the ACC.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
For the fifth consecutive game the CFN FPM gives the Rebels the upper hand in terms of winning percentage. The 65.1% percentage chance of victory is slightly tighter than the odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook and makes it one of the more difficult games on the Rebels schedule.
However, they already proved capable of turning predictions and probabilities into tangible results when they took down the Kansas Jayhawks as a tight favorite. The CFN FPM successfully projected the Rebels’ first four wins, and here are UNLV’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Syracuse: 65.1%
- at Utah State: 89.0%
- at Oregon State: 61.9%
- vs. Boise State: 53.8%
- at Hawaii: 82.1%
- vs. San Diego State: 91.5%
- at San Jose State: 75.5%
- vs. Nevada: 92.8%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, UNLV would be a perfect 12-0 and earn a place in the Mountain West Championship Game. The CFN FPM currently gives the Rebels a 36.6% chance of winning the conference. Furthermore, the program is currently ranked 25th in the AP Poll, with a 47.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Prediction for Syracuse vs. UNLV
After shaking off the sting of their first loss of the season with a dominant victory over FCS opponent Holy Cross, Syracuse heads to Las Vegas to take on a UNLV team eager to claim their third Power Four win and pad their rapidly growing resume.
Can the Rebels stay hot on Friday night, or will the Orange pull off an upset? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Starting with the visitors, quarterback Kyle McCord has found new life at Syracuse after a tumultuous stint as Ohio State’s starter. Now leading the nation in passing yards per game, McCord has been bolstered by the rise of Trebor Pena, who’s proven to be more than just a return specialist.
Pena tops the team in catches (26), receiving yards (316), and touchdowns (five), tying for eighth in the nation alongside big names like Tre Harris and Ryan Williams. The passing attack’s depth is evident, with five players already in double-digit receptions through four games.
That includes running back LeQuint Allen, whose speed and receiving skills make him a constant threat. Despite McCord’s resurgence, this offense runs through Allen, which could spell trouble for Syracuse against UNLV.
In their lone loss to Stanford, the Orange’s ground game stalled completely, and guess what? The Rebels defense is just as good, if not better.
UNLV boasts one of the nation’s top run defenses. Linebacker Jackson Woodard attacks the backfield like a missile, averaging 1.88 tackles for loss per game, good for eighth nationally.
The Rebels allow just 2.88 yards per carry and rank second in interceptions, thanks in part to Jalen Catalon’s four picks and a touchdown.
There was plenty of concern about UNLV’s offense after Matthew Sluka’s exit before Week 5, but replacement Hajj-Malik Williams silenced any doubts by torching Fresno State’s defense with both his arm and his legs.
Facing a Syracuse run defense that’s been merely average, Williams, a deep backfield, and the dynamic receiving duo of Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus are poised to keep the Rebels rolling.
Prediction: UNLV 35, Syracuse 23
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