The Pittsburgh Panthers host the Syracuse Orange in the Steel City on Thursday night, aiming to extend their all-time head-to-head advantage over their ACC rival, boasting a 7-2 record under head coach Pat Narduzzi.
As this crucial ACC matchup approaches, here’s a detailed analysis of the latest odds, a spread breakdown, and our Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -4 - Spread
Pittsburgh -5.5 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -205, Syracuse +170 - Over/Under
63 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium | Pittsburgh, PA - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
The Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds opened at -4 in favor of the Panthers but have since risen to -5.5. The points total has also seen some significant movement, with the line at 63 points on Wednesday AM. Narduzzi’s team is 5-1 covering the spread through the 2024 season, while Syracuse in just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There are also a few intriguing over/under trends to be aware of:
- The under has hit in four of the Orange’s last five.
- The over has hit in 13 of Pitt’s last 20.
- The total has gone under in five of the Panthers’ last seven against an ACC opponent.
Syracuse’s Winning Probability
In Fran Brown’s first year at the helm, the Orange are 5-1, just one win off of their 2023 total (6-7). While the FPM only gives them a 38.9% win probability against Pitt, their rest-of-season outlook is much more optimistic:
- vs. Virginia Tech: 51.8%
- at Boston College: 52.8%
- at California: 50.6%
- vs. UConn: 88.1%
- vs. Miami-FL: 24.7%
If those winning probabilities were to hold true, Syracuse would finish the 2024 campaign with a 9-3 overall record, with three ACC defeats. After compiling a 5-6 record under Dino Babers last year, it would be a significant first-year turnaround for the Orange.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
Despite the less-than-a-touchdown spread, the FPM gives the Panthers a 61.1% chance of defeating Syracuse. The road to the ACC title only gets more difficult, though, with Pitt owning win probabilities under 50% against SMU, Clemson, and Lousiville.
- at SMU: 39.4%
- vs. Virginia: 73.4%
- vs. Clemson: 32.3%
- at Louisville: 45.7%
- at Boston College: 60.6%
If those win projections were to hold true, Pittsburgh would finish the 2024 season with a 9-3 record, flipping the script from a year ago. Head coach Narduzzi was under external pressure ahead of this campaign, but that should change the national narrative.
Prediction for Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
While Pittsburgh has started 6-0 for the first time in 42 years, all good things must eventually come to an end.
Syracuse QB Kyle McCord has been a standout, throwing for over 300 yards in all six games and leading the Orange to their first back-to-back road wins since 2012. The team’s passing attack ranks second in the nation, averaging 365.2 yards per game.
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So, how does Pitt fare against the pass? Not well—they’re giving up 244.7 passing yards per game, ranking 104th nationally. While game flow influences both stats, Syracuse has fully embraced the passing game, jumping from 23.2 attempts last season (125th) to 46.8 in 2024 (1st).
With WRs Jackson Meeks, Trebor Pena, and TE Oronde Gadsden II each averaging over 70 yards per game, opposing defenses have struggled to contain Syracuse’s air attack. Yet, McCord isn’t launching deep balls on every play; instead, the offense relies heavily on quick passes, screens, and RPOs, resulting in a 9.0 average depth of target—one of the lowest in the country.
Both teams have had extra time to prepare for this matchup, coming off bye weeks.
Although Syracuse and Pitt share a +2 turnover differential, Panthers QB Eli Holstein has been inconsistent and has benefited from some turnover luck. I’m putting Pitt on upset alert and picking Syracuse both ATS and straight up.
Prediction: Syracuse 28, Pittsburgh 24
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