Stanford heads east again as road underdogs in a cross-country ACC showdown. Clemson, riding two strong offensive performances, needs a win to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Can Stanford pull off another upset, or is Clemson’s offense for real? Get the latest insights for your Stanford vs. Clemson picks, including spread and total predictions.
Stanford vs. Clemson Betting Preview
All Stanford vs. Clemson odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Clemson -14.5 - Spread
Clemson -22 - Moneyline
Clemson -1800, Stanford +1000 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Sept. 28, 7:00 p.m. ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Clemson, S.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
Clemson opened as a 20.5-point favorite, and that figure has slowly ticked up past the important number of 21 to its current spot at -22. Although it hasn’t moved since Monday, there’s every chance that the line gets out to 23 or 23.5 before kick-off.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The same can be said for the total, which opened at 55.5 and has moved to 57.5 since Sunday afternoon. That would have been unheard of just two weeks ago, but after Clemson put up over 50 points in back-to-back games, the public is backing the Tiger offense.
The Tigers and Cardinal are each 2-1 against the spread this year — though the Tigers have been more dramatically positive the last two weeks while Stanford finished Weeks 1 and 2 just half a point off from the spread. The Tigers are 2-1 to the over, while the Cardinal are 2-1 to the under.
Stanford Remaining Winning Probabilities
The road doesn’t get much cleaner for the Cardinal following their tough matchup with Clemson. Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and proprietary Strength of Schedule metrics, we take a look at the winning probabilities for each of Stanford’s remaining games:
- Virginia Tech 47.5%
- @ Notre Dame 12.8%
- SMU 50.4%
- Wake Forest 51.2%
- @ NC State 44.4%
- Louisville 28.4%
- California 50.6%
- @ San Jose State 50.8%
Even their non-conference matchup against San Jose State looks difficult at this point, but none more difficult than a home game vs. Louisville and a road trip against Notre Dame. Stanford will have to play cohesive football and consistent four quarters’ worth of action down the stretch if they want to become bowl-eligible, it appears.
Clemson Remaining Winning Probabilities
During the preseason, Clemson’s toughest games appeared to be against Georgia and a trip to Tallahassee. However, after FSU’s recent lack of success, a home game against Louisville now looms large.
Using the same method above, and using our metrics to sim these games 10,000 times, here are the winning probabilities for each of Clemson’s final games:
- @ Florida State 68.8%
- @ Wake Forest 74.6%
- Virginia 82.8%
- Louisville 64.6%
- @ Virginia Tech 64.1%
- @ Pittsburgh 61.9%
- The Citadel 99.9%
- South Carolina 75.5%
The Tigers are back to where they want to be and it’ll be interesting to see where these numbers move to following each performance, notably, their performance against FSU.
Prediction for Stanford vs. Clemson
This game hinges on whether you truly believe Clemson’s offense has found its groove. If you think the Tigers are capable of dropping 50 again, you should consider taking the over and leaning toward Clemson, as Stanford likely won’t be able to keep pace if Clemson’s attack is firing on all cylinders for a third consecutive game.
But there’s a case to be made for the opposite. That counterpoint centers around what Clemson’s recent opponents have done against other teams on their schedules.
NC State surrendered 59 points to Clemson but also struggled defensively against Louisiana Tech and FCS Western Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State was completely overmatched by a previously 1-2 South Alabama team, giving up 320 rushing yards in the process.
I broke down Clemson’s offensive surge on Saturday and concluded that while the Tigers won’t sustain a 50-point average for the rest of the season, it likely won’t affect their outcomes too much.
Stanford poses a tougher challenge than the struggling Mountaineer and Wolfpack defenses, so I expect the Tigers to score less than 50, or even 40. For context, Clemson’s implied total based on Vegas’ opening line was around 38 points.
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That feels about right. The real question is whether Stanford can put pressure on Clemson’s defense. NC State found some success hitting 1-on-1 shots to their talented receivers, even with a true freshman at quarterback. I think Stanford has the potential to exploit some of the same vulnerabilities.
Ashton Daniels and Elic Ayomanor have the chemistry to expose a few weaknesses in Clemson’s secondary. This won’t be another Stanford-Colorado situation, so don’t expect Ayomanor to single-handedly carry the Cardinal to victory, but he could make a few big plays to keep it competitive.
Stanford turned heads with an upset win in its ACC debut against Syracuse last week, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice against a stronger ACC squad decked out in orange.
I like some Phil Mafah overs and Daniels’ rushing yards props, but the oddsmakers have this one pegged accurately. For now, I see Stanford sneaking in a cover while the total barely pushes over.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Stanford 20
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