South Florida has been a surprising team to watch this year. Under Alex Golesh, the Bulls are 6-2 in 2025. A loss to Memphis hurt their chances, but are the Bulls out of the CFP yet? Here is the full breakdown of the USF playoff chances.
Can USF make the Playoffs?
Under the new format, one Group of 5 teams is guaranteed a bid. So, for now, the Bulls remain in the conversation. However, the path ahead is not so easy.
First, USF will have to win out and get to the conference championship. The AAC has a 6-way tie for first place right now, and the Bulls are one of those teams. They play one of those teams in the Navy, and the rest are bottom feeders. On paper, the schedule looks extremely favorable for Alex Golesh’s team.
If they can get through that, they should make the AAC championship game. If they can get a win there, USF should definitely be the mix for the G5 spot in the CFP.
Breaking Down South Florida’s College Football Playoff Odds in 2025
According to Bet MGM, the Bulls’ odds of making the playoffs are sitting at +240. That seems favorable considering they have two losses, but their schedule is certainly helping them out. An AAC championship would pit the Bulls against James Madison and Boise State for the G5 spot.
Boise State shouldn’t be a concern for South Florida, as the Bulls have the head-to-head victory earlier in the year. James Madison could be interesting, though.
The Dukes are undefeated in conference play with their lone loss against Louisville, the 14th-ranked team in the country. JMU has Coastal Carolina and Washington State as potential losses on the schedule. If they can win out, it would put a one-loss JMU vs a two-loss USF. USF would also have the benefit of a Florida and Boise State non-conference win.
Bottom Line
Behind a solid defense and up-tempo offense, USF is still in the playoff race. An American Athletic Conference Championship will be a huge resume boost despite the two losses on the schedule. Alex Golesh has already shown his team can hang with just about anyone in college football. It would certainly be surprising not to see the Bulls here with their name on Selection Sunday if they are perfect down the stretch.
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