Before the season kicked off, not many would have pegged the South Carolina Gamecocks or the Vanderbilt Commodores as headline-worthy teams, even though the potential was always there. Fast forward to now, the Gamecocks sit at 5-3, and the Commodores boast a 6-2 record. Still, both fan bases can’t help but feel a little frustrated that those records aren’t even better.
This matchup holds big stakes—whoever wins is almost guaranteed a spot in next week’s College Football Playoff rankings, while the loser will likely find themselves on the outside looking in. South Carolina has recently shaken things up on offense, while Diego Pavia continues to give Vanderbilt a fighting chance in every game. Dive into our South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt prediction to see who we think takes one of Week 11’s most captivating matchups.
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Vanderbilt -3.5 - Spread
South Carolina -6 - Moneyline
South Carolina -218, Vanderbilt +180 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
While Vegas disagrees with the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter line, so too do bettors. The line opened at South Carolina -3 and has moved to -4 since then. Similarly, the total has moved down from 46.4 to 45.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total’s drop might be weather-related, as a predicted Sunday storm is now expected to move in earlier, impacting at least the second half of the game. With a spread of four points and a total of 45, the game is expected to be close and low-scoring, with an implied final score close to 24-20 in favor of the Gamecocks.
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
South Carolina isn’t loved by FPM, but the Gamecocks have outplayed the metric in three consecutive games, covering in all three (and winning outright in two) when the metric though they’d fail to cover in all of them.
The metric gives them a 39.4% of beating the Commodores. South Carolina should get to bowl eligibility, but a win this weekend could make 8-4 or 9-3 a real possibility.
- at Vanderbilt: 39.4%
- vs. Missouri: 50.4%
- vs. Wofford: 99.8%
- at Clemson: 28.4%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Vanderbilt has a 60.6% chance of beating the Gamecocks at home. The rest of the schedule is difficult, but the Commodores could secure their first winning season since 2013 with a win on Saturday.
- vs. South Carolina: 60.6%
- at LSU: 25.1%
- vs. Tennessee: 34.3%
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
While FPM has struggled to pinpoint the Gamecocks’ true level, this South Carolina alum has been dialed in from a betting perspective, correctly calling their last two games as multi-score wins.
But can the Gamecocks handle a solid Vanderbilt team?
The statistical profiles of these squads are fascinating. Vanderbilt has had major issues running the ball, relying on Pavia, their quarterback, to lead the team in rushing.
Pavia shines at avoiding sacks under pressure, but he hasn’t faced a pass rush quite like South Carolina’s, which ranks as the best in the country. The key here is whether Pavia can evade the relentless pressure and still create positive plays. If he can’t, Vanderbilt’s offense could sputter. The Commodores can’t afford to end up in third-and-long situations, where their tackles are likely to be overwhelmed by South Carolina’s dynamic edge-rushing duo of Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard.
On the offensive side, South Carolina made a drastic shift in their rushing attack over the bye week. They transitioned from running zone on nearly 70% of rushing plays to leaning heavily on gap-scheme power runs, which accounted for 63% of their attempts against Texas A&M, the SEC’s top-ranked rushing defense.
The results? Stunning. The Gamecocks racked up 177 yards on gap-scheme runs (8.05 yards per carry), scored three touchdowns, and didn’t record a single rush for zero or negative yards. For a team that had been allowing the highest tackle-for-loss rate in the SEC, that’s a massive step forward. They were successful on 59% of those runs, a far cry from their earlier struggles.
What does this all mean?
South Carolina physically overwhelmed the second-best defensive front in the SEC. Combine that with a Gamecocks defensive line that’s dominated every offensive line they’ve faced, and it’s clear this team has the potential to bully opponents outright.
Vanderbilt does have the Pavia-Eli Stowers connection, which has been tough for teams to stop. But if South Carolina counters with Nick Emmanwori or Jalon Kilgore in coverage, they should be able to at least slow it down.
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While Vanderbilt has capitalized on favorable matchups this season, South Carolina’s superiority in the trenches feels like too much to overcome. The potential rain could play a role, but contrary to popular belief, bad weather often benefits offenses—especially with two slippery quarterbacks like these.
The rain might actually help push this game over the total.
Sorry, FPM, but I’m disagreeing with you again. Gamecocks win and cover—maybe even easily.
Prediction: South Carolina 31, Vanderbilt 22
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