While some bowl games may not carry the same weight they once did, they still offer a valuable opportunity to build program momentum heading into the next season. For the Western Michigan Broncos and South Alabama Jaguars, this game is a chance to finish the year with a winning record. However, managing a packed December and dealing with bowl opt-outs presents its own set of challenges.
So, which coaching staff rises above the stress and has their team ready to shine on Saturday? Dive into our South Alabama vs. Western Michigan prediction to find out.
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Salute to Veterans Bowl Betting Preview
All South Alabama vs. Western Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Alabama -3.5 - Spread
South Alabama -7.5 - Moneyline
South Alabama -290, Western Michigan +235 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 14, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Cramton Bowl | Montgomery, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kickoff
55 degrees, rainy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Handicapping bowl games has become more difficult in the transfer portal era with potential opt-outs looming. You can track opt-outs for every bowl game in the bowl game opt-out tracker below. In addition, we’re monitoring the health of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez, who suffered a foot injury in the regular season finale.
There’s been some line movement here, but nothing drastic. The spread has ticked down a half-point to South Alabama -10, and the total has fallen from 60.5 to 59.5 points. The weather could play a factor here, as early reports expect a rainy night in Montgomery.
South Alabama’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is much lower on the Jaguars, making them favorites of only three points on a neutral field (we gave them a half-point for the travel advantage of the game being played in the Yellowhammer State). That translates to a winning probability of 57.4%.
- vs. Western Michigan: 57.4%
Western Michigan’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Broncos are small underdogs, with a winning probability of 42.6%. The Broncos have to travel further than the Jaguars. Western Michigan is seeking a seventh win, and if the Broncos pull off the upset, they’ll secure their first winning season under Lance Taylor.
- vs. South Alabama: 42.6%
Prediction for South Alabama vs. Western Michigan
Bowl season kicks off with an intriguing Sun Belt vs. MAC clash in Montgomery, Ala., where the smaller stage adds its own charm, even if opt-outs leave their mark. While the volume of absences isn’t overwhelming, they’ll still impact this game.
The most notable losses? Western Michigan’s top pass-catcher, tight end Blake Bosma, and South Alabama’s star running back, Fluff Bothwell. That said, Bothwell’s role had diminished down the stretch, so his absence might not hit as hard.
MORE: Western Michigan & South Alabama Players Opting Out of Veterans Bowl
Another key storyline revolves around South Alabama quarterback Lopez, whose foot injury could severely limit him against the Broncos. If Lopez can’t suit up, backup Bishop Davenport will step in. Davenport has been solid in limited action, posting 335 passing yards and a touchdown on 55 attempts this season.
The Broncos’ defense has been a weak spot all year, allowing opposing offenses to thrive. That’s part of why this game’s spread and total favor South Alabama, who boasts a dynamic offense. However, much of the Jaguars’ offensive spark has come from standout efforts by Lopez and Bothwell.
The big question: Can South Alabama’s offense deliver if Lopez is sidelined? The redshirt freshman quarterback has accounted for 18 passing touchdowns, seven rushing scores, and only seven turnovers. Combined with Bothwell’s 13 rushing TDs, that’s a lot of firepower to potentially lose as a 10-point favorite.
On the other side, Western Michigan leans heavily on the run game. The Broncos feature three backs with over 100 carries this season. Jaden Nixon and Jalen Buckley, in particular, have been a force, racking up over 1,500 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns.
Though quarterback Hayden Wolff doesn’t air it out often, he’s efficient and dangerous with the deep ball, giving the Broncos enough balance to keep defenses on edge.
All things considered, I’m leaning toward the Broncos, especially with questions surrounding Lopez’s availability. This could turn into a sloppy, ground-heavy game, where South Alabama might struggle if Lopez can’t contribute with his legs—a tough ask if he’s not fully healthy.
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Weather might also play a role here. Rain could slow the tempo, encourage more running, and shorten the game, likely driving down the total. That’s probably why the number is already dropping.
In a messy, rain-soaked matchup, I like the underdog’s chances, and the Broncos catching 10 points feels like a gift with South Alabama missing its top offensive weapon.
Even if Lopez plays, I don’t see the Jaguars running away with this one. I’m siding with the team hungrier for a winning season. Take the Broncos to cover and the under, and if you’re feeling bold in your bowl pick’em contests, don’t hesitate to pick Western Michigan outright.
Prediction: Western Michigan 28, South Alabama 26
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