The SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions have only faced each other twice in their history, with their last matchup happening more than 45 years ago. Back in 1978, Penn State edged out a 26-21 victory, while their first meeting in 1948 resulted in a gritty 13-13 tie.
So, who takes the win this time? Our SMU vs. Penn State prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they square off in the opening round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
SMU vs. Penn State College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7 - Spread
Penn State -8 - Moneyline
Penn State -305, SMU +245 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Dec. 21 - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
TNT/Max
If you bet on SMU to cover the spread this year, you’ve made a pretty penny. The Mustangs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10, even winning straight up in their lone game as an underdog against the Louisville Cardinals.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Nittany Lions’ 6-6 overall ATS record doesn’t look as impressive in comparison, but they are 4-1 in their last five as favorites.
Both teams have been kind to over bettors as well, with SMU cashing it in seven of its last 10 and Penn State doing so in four of its last five.
SMU’s Winning Probability
The Mustangs are fresh off a tight ACC Championship Game loss to the Clemson Tigers. While the defeat certainly stings, it was the program’s first year in the conference, which is rather remarkable. But Rhett Lashlee and Co. want more, beginning with Round 1 of the CFP.
- at Penn State: 31.2%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
James Franklin has a bit of a reputation for struggling in big games, and he couldn’t clear his name with an upset victory over the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title match. Can he hold off SMU as a more-than-a-touchdown favorite?
- vs. SMU: 68.8%
Prediction for SMU vs. Penn State
SMU undoubtedly earned their spot in the playoffs, but it’s hard to envision them advancing past the first round.
Kevin Jennings has done an admirable job filling in for Preston Stone, yet Drew Allar’s experience and battle-tested resume give him the edge. Allar’s decision-making stands out—he’s a master at protecting the football and avoiding sacks in situations that would overwhelm most college quarterbacks.
What’s even more notable is Allar’s ability to outperform Jennings on the ground, despite not being a focal point in designed runs. Meanwhile, Jennings thrives in those scenarios. Unfortunately for SMU, their issues go far beyond the quarterback position.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The deeper numbers don’t do the Mustangs any favors. SMU’s offensive success rate ranks 48th nationally, but Penn State’s defense checks in at 19th. While SMU sits at 28th in offensive net points per drive, Penn State dominates at ninth in defensive net points per drive.
These teams are competitive, but SMU doesn’t have a clear advantage in any critical area. Penn State even excels in pivotal stats like penalty yards per game (45 vs. 79), turnover margin (+5 vs. 0), and time of possession (30:40 vs. 28:26).
If there’s one lingering concern for Penn State, it’s James Franklin’s history of falling short in big moments. But in my view, that’s a potential storyline for later in the playoffs—not this round.
Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 24
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