After a comfortable win over the Cal Golden Bears to end the college football regular season with an 11-1 record, the SMU Mustangs appear to be College Football Playoff-bound. However, their performances over 12 games alone might not be enough to guarantee Rhett Lashlee’s team a spot in the 12-team format.
SMU’s Playoff Odds
What an inaugural season it has been in the ACC for SMU. Few gave them a chance of being instantly competitive as they made the leap to the Power conference level, but the Mustangs have galloped through their regular season schedule, booking a spot in the ACC Championship Game ahead of their season finale against Cal — a game that they were never in danger of losing.
Despite this success, the program has been consistently underrated by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, and it’s this lack of respect that raises the possibility of the Mustangs being on the outside looking in if they were to lose to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game.
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The initial DraftKings Sportsbook odds make them an underdog for that title game. Meanwhile, their National Championship odds are longer than an Alabama Crimson Tide team that is currently ranked below them in the post-Week 13 College Football Playoff Rankings.
The scene around SMU is murky. Currently ranked ninth by both the CFP Rankings and AP Poll, they’re outranked by two two-loss SEC teams, with multiple three-loss SEC programs circling behind them. With the Ohio State Buckeyes losing against the Michigan Wolverines, there’s a two-loss Big Ten team that could be ranked above them, especially if they lose to the Tigers next Saturday.
What all this tells us is that the Mustangs can only rely on being ranked high enough to qualify for the 12-team tournament if they win the ACC Championship and secure one of the five automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. SMU has played well enough to be in on their own merit, but they can’t trust that they’re safely in without taking down Clemson next week.
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