Our SMU vs. Louisville prediction dives into the matchup, offers betting insights, and shows where your money should go. The Cardinals are looking to rebound after last week’s loss to Notre Dame as they return home to face a confident Mustangs squad.
SMU enters this matchup riding high after a dominant 42-16 victory over Florida State in their ACC opener.
SMU vs. Louisville Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Louisville odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -5.5 - Spread
Louisville -7 - Moneyline
Louisville -258, SMU +210 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 5 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
ESPN
The total has dropped from 61.5 to 55.5, while Louisville’s spread has bounced from Louisville -8 to as far as -6.5 before settling at -7 on Saturday morning.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While SMU is an impressive 6-0 straight up in their last six road games, five of those took place last season, with the program’s last road game coming against Nevada in Week 0.
On the flip side, Louisville is 3-0 at home ATS and straight up, as well as 5-1 straight up in their last six games against ACC opponents.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, SMU has just a 35.4% chance to knock off Louisville. But that’s a one-off, as the program is favored in each of its final six contests this year.
Here are the Mustangs’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Stanford: 65.7%
- at Duke: 52.5%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 53.4%
- vs. Boston College: 53.8%
- at Virginia: 57.4%
- vs. California: 67.7%
Louisville’s Winning Probability
Although Louisville has a 64.6% probability against SMU, the rest of their schedule is brutal. Matchups against Miami, Clemson, and Kentucky are major stumbling points that could cause the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes to waver down the stretch.
Here are the Cardinals’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Virginia: 64.6%
- vs. Miami: 38.1%
- at Boston College: 52.5%
- at Clemson: 26.6%
- at Stanford: 75.1%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 64.6%
- at Kentucky: 48.2%
Prediction SMU vs. Louisville
The last time SMU and Louisville faced off was back in the 1980s—well before anyone on these rosters was even born. Now, they kick off a new ACC rivalry, and while the first chapter promises some sparks, it may not deliver fireworks.
SMU’s high-octane offense, led by Kevin Jennings, has looked impressive on paper, but the numbers tell a different story. Both TCU and Florida State piled up more yardage against the Mustangs, but a +7 turnover margin helped SMU coast to easy victories.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Louisville, meanwhile, felt the sting of a collapse. Despite outgaining Notre Dame by 154 yards, the Cardinals coughed up the ball three times—their first turnovers of the season—in a gut-wrenching 31-24 loss.
Expect Tyler Shough and a healthier Caullin Lacy to light up the passing game, while Ashton Gillotte and the defensive front look to keep Brashard Smith (7.3 yards per carry in 2024) in check, forcing the less experienced Jennings to try and win it through the air.
Prediction: Louisville 27, SMU 17
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