Following the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s final rankings, the bracket is officially set. What is the SMU Mustangs’ path to the national championship?
SMU College Football Playoff First Round Prediction vs. No. 6 Penn State
Despite losing the ACC title to the Clemson Tigers, the Mustangs remain alive in the CFP race. Their first opponents: the Penn State Nittany Lions. It’s one of the most difficult opening-round placements, especially with the contest in Happy Valley.
- Win Probability vs. Penn State: 38.1%
- CFN Spread vs. Penn State: Penn State -4
SMU College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Projection vs. No. 3 Boise State
If SMU escapes with a Round 1 victory, they’ll face an easier — at least on paper — matchup with the Boise State Broncos. Boise State proved its mettle against the Oregon Ducks early in the year, but SMU will be its toughest test since.
- Win Probability vs. Boise State: 57.4%
- CFN Spread vs. Boise State: SMU -3
SMU College Football Playoff Semifinal Projection vs. No. 10 Indiana, No. 7 Notre Dame, or No. 2 Georgia
It only gets more difficult from there, with the semifinal holding three possible opponents, all of whom would be favored over SMU: the Indiana Hoosiers, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the Georgia Bulldogs.
- Win Probability vs. Indiana: 41.1%
- Win Probability vs. Notre Dame: 38.1%
- Win Probability vs. Georgia: 29.7%
- CFN Spread vs. Indiana: Indiana -3
- CFN Spread vs. Notre Dame: Notre Dame -4
- CFN Spread vs. Georgia: Georgia -7
SMU College Football Playoff National Championship Projection vs. the Field
What a year it would be if the Mustangs made the national championship. The 2024 season was their first in the ACC, and all they did was go 11-1 in the regular season to secure a spot in the title match. However, they lost that game, and the duel for the ultimate prize won’t be any easier.
The Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Texas Longhorns would be the most difficult matchups, while a rematch with the Tigers and a battle between first-year new conference members in the Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12) being among the easiest.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
- Win Probability vs. No. 5 Texas: 31.2%
- Win Probability vs. No. 12 Clemson: 49.6%
- Win Probability vs. No. 4 Arizona State: 49.2%
- Win Probability vs. No. 8 Ohio State: 28.4%
- Win Probability vs. No. 9 Tennessee: 36.4%
- Win Probability vs. No. 1 Oregon: 24.5%
- CFN Spread vs. No. 5 Texas: Texas -7
- CFN Spread vs. No. 12 Clemson: Pick ’em
- CFN Spread vs. No. 4 Arizona State: SMU -1
- CFN Spread vs. No. 8 Ohio State: Ohio State -7
- CFN Spread vs. No. 9 Tennessee: Tennessee -5
- CFN Spread vs. No. 1 Oregon: Oregon -10
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