The Southeastern Conference triggered the most recent round of college football realignment when it added the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners into the mix for the 2024 college football campaign. Now, one of those two newcomers is an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC title game, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
SEC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 SEC Championship:
- Texas Longhorns – 42.3%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 14.1%
- Missouri Tigers – 13%
- LSU Tigers – 10.5%
- Tennessee Volunteers – 7.2%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 5.9%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 4.1%
- Texas A&M Aggies – 0.2%
- Oklahoma Sooners – 0.1%
- South Carolina Gamecocks – 0.1%
- Auburn Tigers – 0%
- Arkansas Razorbacks – 0%
- Kentucky Wildcats – 0%
- Florida Gators – 0%
- Mississippi State – 0%
- Vanderbilt – 0%
Texas Longhorns – 42.3%
Texas has yet to play an SEC game, but from what we’ve seen of the Longhorns, there’s every chance they could curb-stomp all-comers in their new conference home. While you can’t read too much into substantial wins over Colorado State and UTSA, the way Steve Sarkisian’s team handled Michigan in Week 2 speaks volumes about what they’re capable of in 2024.
Texas’ conference-leading 42.3% chance of winning the SEC is fuelled by the 13th-ranked strength of schedule, an offense that seems equally capable in the hands of Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, and a defense that ranks fifth nationally with just 6.3 points allowed per game. While the CFN FPM gives them a projected 11-1 record, there’s a 29.4% chance of winning out.
Ole Miss Rebels – 14.1%
Lane Kiffin has steadily made the Ole Miss Rebels a force in the SEC, to the point where they should be considered a legitimate contender for the conference crown in 2024. Jaxson Dart is manning a typical high-scoring Kiffin offense in dangerous style, with the Rebels leading the nation with 692.0 yards per game and ranking second with 56.0 points per game. Electric.
Yet, they’ve also been significantly improved on defense, a traditional Kiffin weakness. No team has allowed less points per game through Week 3, and while there are tough tests ahead of them, it appears their transfer portal policy this offseason is paying off. Our SEC predictions give the Rebels a 14.1% chance of an SEC title and a 66.2% of a College Football Playoff push.
Missouri Tigers – 13%
They say good things come in pairs, and after the Missouri Tigers broke a near-10-year double-digit win drought last year, our SEC predictions suggest another could be on the cards, replicating the success of the 2013-2014 doubleheader. The CFN FPM projects a 10-2 season (a 9.83% chance of going undefeated) for Eli Drinkwitz’s team and a 13% chance of winning the conference.
Although they face Alabama in Bryant-Dennt Stadium in late October, Missouri has the easiest strength of schedule in the SEC, avoiding Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas. They’re currently ranked seventh in the AP Poll Top 25, good enough for a spot in the 12-team playoff, and there is a 64.2% chance that the Tigers will carry momentum through the season and into a postseason spot.
LSU Tigers – 10.5%
One of the advantages of the new playoff format is that a team can take an early defeat (or even two) and still make it to the postseason tournament. The LSU Tigers could be a beneficiary of that this season, with a 16.7% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff despite an opening weekend loss to USC.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Brian Kelly’s chance of taking the Tigers to an SEC title is a little lower. Ties with Alabama and Ole Miss blight their schedule, while their difficulty in overcoming South Carolina in Week 3 showcased some of the defensive issues that result in a 6.1% probability of winning out. LSU ranks 94th and 91st for scoring defense and total defense, respectively.
Tennessee Volunteers – 7.2%
The Nico Iamaleava era is here. While it’s wise not to react to early-season events, the young Tennessee quarterback looks to be the real deal, and he gives the Volunteers offense a legitimate chance of competing with any team in the country. Josh Heupel offenses are always fun to watch, but this might be the best we’ve seen from one of his teams.
The defense has looked up to the task early in the year too, allowing just 4.3 points per game to rank third nationally. They avoid Texas and Ole Miss on their schedule, but a visit from Alabama and a road trip to Athens will be the real litmus test of their title candidacy. The CFN FPM gives the Vols a projected 10-2 record, with a 6.3% chance of winning out.
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