SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

Find the SEC Football Playoff Rankings, examined by the CFN Football Playoff Meter, with up-to-the-minute predictions of the SEC's postseason chances.

The SEC could place as many as five teams in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs if all goes to plan. And yet, that would feel as if a team or two is being left out of the postseason race when all is said and done.

Find out every SEC team’s road to the postseason using the CFN Football Playoff Meter and each of the conference’s map to the Playoffs.

2024 SEC Football Playoff Meter

The CFN FPM analyzes each team’s up-to-the-minute postseason chances. Using a simulation model based off power rankings and a variety of other factors, the table below gives you each SEC team’s chances to win out, projected win totals, chances to win the SEC, and chances to advance in each round of the College Football Playoffs.

This table is best viewed in landscape mode on a mobile device.

TeamConferenceW-LFPMPreseason S.O.S.Remaining S.O.S.Projected W-LWin Out %Win Conf.%Make Playoff%Make CFP NC%Win CFP NC%
AlabamaSEC4-033.563110.5-1.514.60%14.42%68.04%27.20%14.64%
TexasSEC5-033.3212511.0-1.031.28%37.13%90.71%28.89%15.02%
Ohio StateB1G4-033.0231710.5-1.514.08%23.41%68.65%27.71%14.10%
GeorgiaSEC3-132.84399.5-2.512.80%13.12%27.11%28.63%14.57%
OregonB1G4-031.8253410.7-1.321.06%30.84%78.17%13.34%6.90%
TennesseeSEC4-030.0325710.4-1.610.47%10.05%66.44%11.47%5.69%
Penn StateB1G4-029.5214310.5-1.516.38%24.30%69.58%12.67%5.84%
MissouriSEC4-027.8534010.1-1.96.93%7.72%56.81%10.78%5.22%
LSUSEC4-127.515129.0-3.07.74%9.26%16.43%10.70%5.27%
Ole MissSEC4-126.327128.7-3.34.33%4.20%13.98%9.58%4.40%
Miami-FLACC5-026.0496410.6-1.418.89%42.62%72.57%10.51%4.43%
ClemsonACC3-124.819689.4-2.616.62%34.99%26.70%8.27%3.83%
Notre DameInd.4-123.545699.6-2.419.36%036.98%0.02%0.01%
MichiganB1G4-123.33148.1-3.91.07%8.57%9.43%0.01%0.00%
USCB1G3-122.05288.1-3.92.08%7.08%8.98%0.01%0.01%
Iowa StateBig 124-021.844509.5-2.54.21%12.93%27.85%0.04%0.02%
ArizonaBig 123-121.862638.6-3.45.50%19.83%14.06%0.00%0.00%
UtahBig 124-121.361428.5-3.54.25%23.94%12.98%0.01%0.01%
BYUBig 125-021.038459.5-2.54.04%8.41%31.21%0.01%0.00%
Kansas StateBig 124-120.048588.5-3.53.78%22.49%13.02%0.01%0.00%
LouisvilleACC3-120.041167.3-4.70.50%1.83%3.20%0.00%0.00%
OklahomaSEC4-119.8236.7-5.30.03%0.13%0.68%0.00%0.00%
Texas A&MSEC4-119.514277.8-4.20.59%2.81%6.66%0.01%0.00%
IndianaB1G5-018.863359.1-2.90.70%1.18%17.74%0.01%0.00%
UNLVMWC4-018.3758110.1-1.99.75%36.60%47.79%0.02%0.01%
IowaB1G3-118.347547.8-4.20.49%1.19%6.08%0.00%0.00%
KentuckySEC3-218.310496.8-5.20.18%0.36%0.87%0.00%0.00%
Boise StateMWC3-118.079929.4-2.613.32%25.44%18.13%0.01%0.01%
Georgia TechACC2-117.812386.7-5.30.07%3.35%0.80%0.00%0.00%
IllinoisB1G4-117.835417.9-4.10.55%1.00%8.01%0.01%0.00%
Oklahoma StateBig 123-217.855446.9-5.11.43%5.20%1.16%0.00%0.00%
NebraskaB1G4-117.043117.1-4.90.10%0.35%2.23%0.00%0.00%
PittsburghACC4-016.859378.2-3.80.44%1.60%10.02%0.00%0.00%
RutgersB1G4-016.855568.4-3.60.66%1.47%12.38%0.02%0.01%
SMUACC4-116.868537.8-4.21.17%3.02%5.91%0.00%0.00%
James MadisonSun Belt4-016.513412810.6-1.420.75%51.00%70.06%0.00%0.00%
Washington StatePac-124-116.5851059.5-2.515.40%54.00%27.53%0.02%0.00%
Boston CollegeACC4-116.533517.8-4.21.33%2.31%6.88%0.00%0.00%
South CarolinaSEC3-216.316336.2-5.80.14%0.71%0.12%0.00%0.00%
West VirginiaBig 122-216.320315.8-6.20.20%0.71%0.06%0.00%0.00%
ColoradoBig 124-115.536297.2-4.80.35%1.32%2.44%0.00%0.00%
LibertyCUSA4-015.31331349.8-2.225.20%75.09%39.78%0.03%0.01%
UCFBig 123-115.350196.3-5.70.06%0.90%0.16%0.00%0.00%
ArkansasSEC3-215.31165.4-6.60.01%0.06%0.01%0.00%0.00%
WashingtonB1G3-215.33025.3-6.70.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Texas TechBig 124-115.055267.0-5.00.18%0.67%1.67%0.00%0.00%
MemphisAAC4-114.8951029.2-2.811.30%31.08%16.88%0.00%0.00%
SyracuseACC3-114.867486.7-5.30.14%3.36%0.62%0.00%0.00%
WisconsinB1G2-214.829235.4-6.60.03%0.07%0.01%0.00%0.00%
TCUBig 123-214.538526.4-5.60.43%1.52%0.23%0.00%0.00%
Virginia TechACC2-314.563555.4-6.60.55%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%
KansasBig 121-414.358364.1-7.90.21%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Arizona StateBig 123-113.824226.1-5.90.03%0.27%0.04%0.00%0.00%
MinnesotaB1G2-313.834244.8-7.20.09%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulaneAAC3-213.580957.9-4.16.90%18.36%5.07%0.00%0.00%
MarylandB1G3-213.54695.6-6.40.01%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
DukeACC5-013.359458.1-3.90.15%0.53%8.70%0.00%0.00%
VirginiaACC3-113.040185.9-6.10.01%0.39%0.07%0.00%0.00%
FloridaSEC2-213.0114.1-7.90.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CaliforniaACC3-112.851616.6-5.40.11%1.10%0.63%0.00%0.00%
AuburnSEC2-312.52574.3-7.70.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Oregon StatePac-123-112.370717.5-4.50.60%46.00%4.16%0.01%0.00%
BaylorBig 122-312.342474.9-7.10.13%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CincinnatiBig 123-211.852305.5-6.50.05%0.20%0.01%0.00%0.00%
NC StateACC3-211.566676.3-5.70.42%1.47%0.17%0.00%0.00%
Fresno StateMWC3-211.388937.5-4.54.02%26.40%2.38%0.00%0.00%
Michigan StateB1G3-211.327105.1-6.90.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ArmyAAC4-010.8124989.1-2.91.56%24.20%15.06%0.00%0.00%
North CarolinaACC3-210.865655.9-6.10.18%0.59%0.05%0.00%0.00%
NavyAAC4-010.598828.7-3.30.82%15.02%10.92%0.00%0.00%
StanfordACC2-210.536605.2-6.80.03%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Wake ForestACC1-310.353594.2-7.80.02%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Texas StateSun Belt2-210.01311307.4-4.63.94%16.03%1.52%0.00%0.00%
PurdueB1G1-310.01283.0-9.00.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western KentuckyCUSA3-29.8831337.7-4.34.41%11.35%4.78%0.00%0.00%
VanderbiltSEC2-29.8653.9-8.10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
LouisianaSun Belt3-19.51201098.1-3.92.27%6.36%4.48%0.00%0.00%
Florida StateACC1-49.517623.6-8.40.01%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Bowling GreenMAC1-39.3991226.1-5.92.38%23.44%0.07%0.00%0.00%
San Jose StateMWC3-18.8100726.8-5.20.14%1.14%0.49%0.00%0.00%
South AlabamaSun Belt2-38.5931186.4-5.63.35%13.69%0.11%0.00%0.00%
ToledoMAC3-18.31261067.7-4.31.29%9.39%5.46%0.00%0.00%
UCLAB1G1-38.38213.0-9.00.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
USFAAC2-38.0761246.3-5.72.77%5.69%0.09%0.00%0.00%
Miami-OHMAC1-37.891995.5-6.50.98%11.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Appalachian StateSun Belt2-27.593865.6-6.40.74%3.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Mississippi StateSEC1-47.5942.5-9.50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Northern IllinoisMAC2-27.3971136.6-5.41.02%12.54%0.47%0.00%0.00%
HoustonBig 121-47.318202.5-9.50.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
North TexasAAC4-17.0119917.7-4.30.69%1.41%3.69%0.00%0.00%
MarshallSun Belt2-26.8781096.4-5.60.54%5.78%0.12%0.00%0.00%
Eastern MichiganMAC4-16.51271217.9-4.11.60%17.12%7.44%0.00%0.00%
Georgia SouthernSun Belt3-26.389906.4-5.60.49%2.05%0.16%0.00%0.00%
Sam HoustonCUSA4-16.0911177.8-4.21.00%7.19%5.00%0.00%0.00%
Colorado StateMWC2-25.8801146.2-5.80.33%2.65%0.05%0.00%0.00%
OhioMAC3-25.51171186.7-5.31.06%9.26%0.64%0.00%0.00%
NorthwesternB1G2-25.530153.5-8.50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western MichiganMAC1-35.0901265.2-6.80.55%5.85%0.01%0.00%0.00%
Central MichiganMAC3-24.8111846.0-6.00.25%3.27%0.09%0.00%0.00%
Georgia StateSun Belt2-24.5107855.4-6.60.05%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt3-14.3116886.5-5.50.08%0.32%0.12%0.00%0.00%
HawaiiMWC2-24.0123745.0-7.00.01%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Jacksonville StateCUSA1-33.81051204.9-7.10.16%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTSAAAC2-33.51091085.2-6.80.29%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UL-MonroeSun Belt3-13.271755.8-6.20.01%0.42%0.01%0.00%0.00%
UConnInd.3-23.01211046.1-5.90.21%00.07%0.00%0.00%
UABAAC1-33.0110874.1-7.90.02%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CharlotteAAC2-32.8100834.6-7.40.05%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Ball StateMAC1-32.8106974.3-7.70.07%3.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TroySun Belt1-42.51081003.9-8.10.16%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%
San Diego StateMWC1-32.5102804.0-8.00.01%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulsaAAC2-32.31291255.1-6.90.23%0.60%0.01%0.00%0.00%
New MexicoMWC2-32.3861034.9-7.10.15%3.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Arkansas StateSun Belt2-22.3951095.4-6.60.08%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%
FIUCUSA2-31.81301275.1-6.90.17%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%
RiceAAC1-41.8111763.3-8.70.02%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Air ForceMWC1-31.5114883.9-8.10.02%4.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
WyomingMWC1-41.5111773.3-8.70.01%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Southern MissSun Belt1-31.5103793.7-8.30.01%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NevadaMWC2-31.387704.1-8.90.01%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Utah StateMWC1-31.082733.5-8.50.00%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BuffaloMAC3-20.81251295.9-6.10.19%1.84%0.05%0.00%0.00%
Middle TennesseeCUSA1-40.8771314.1-7.90.20%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Louisiana TechCUSA1-30.81181234.3-7.80.04%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TempleAAC1-40.51151163.7-8.30.08%0.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%
New Mexico StateCUSA1-40.3104963.6-8.40.03%1.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTEPCUSA0-40.384943.2-8.80.00%1.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UMassInd.1-40.369662.9-9.10.00%00.00%0.00%0.00%
FAUAAC2-30.01321314.9-7.10.17%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AkronMAC1-40.0741123.5-8.50.06%1.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ECUAAC3-20.01281015.5-6.50.04%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ODUSun Belt1-30.072783.3-8.70.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kent StateMAC0-5-0.5731152.6-9.40.06%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kennesaw StateCUSA0-4-1.01211072.8-9.20.01%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

SEC Winning Probabilities

Using the CFN FPM in the SEC exclusively, we can take a look at each team’s winning probability and projected spread for the week ahead. While this is not a prediction, this is the computer’s number in comparison to what the betting spreads may look like for each game that involves an SEC team.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Alabama (-22) @ Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 94.4%

Arkansas (12.5) vs. Tennessee 
Win Probability: 17.2%

Auburn (23.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 4.8%

Florida (-1) vs. UCF
Win Probability: 50.8%

Georgia (-23.5) vs. Auburn
Win Probability: 95.2%

Kentucky (-11.5) vs. Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 80.6%

LSU (-4.5) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 62.6%

Mississippi State (28.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 1.2%

Missouri (-5) @ Texas A&M
Win Probability: 64.4%

Oklahoma (13.5) vs. Texas
Win Probability: 20.7%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Ole Miss (-7) @ South Carolina
Win Probability: 70.3%

South Carolina (7) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 29.7%

Tennessee (-12.5) @ Arkansas
Win Probability: 82.8%

Texas (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma
Win Probability: 79.3%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Texas A&M (5.25) vs. Missouri
Win Probability: 35.4%

Vanderbilt (22) vs. Alabama
Win Probability: 5.6%

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