The SEC Championship Game is fast approaching now that we’re in the month of November. With five one-loss teams after Week 10, the road map is quite simple: Win out.
But what if it’s not that simple for some of these five one-loss programs? Let’s map it out.
SEC Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough, but before we get their latest SEC Championship Odds after Week 10, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
CFN simulated the SEC season over 10,00 times, locked in with the current results and simulating the final four weeks of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
SEC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Georgia: 33.51%
- Texas: 25.14%
- Ole Miss: 14.31%
- LSU: 8.59%
- Texas A&M: 7.94%
- Tennessee: 6.81%
- Alabama: 3.00%
- Vanderbilt: 0.70%
These numbers above are how many times each team made the SEC Championship Game, and subsequently won the SEC in the process. Any team not listed above never made it to the SEC Championship Game.
The current standings are below, but scroll just below those to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the SEC.
Updated SEC Standings
- 1) Georgia Bulldogs: 5-1 (7-1 overall)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies: 5-1 (7-2)
- 3) Tennessee Volunteers: 4-1 (7-1)
- 4) Texas Longhorns: 3-1 (7-1)
- 5) LSU Tigers: 3-1 (6-2)
- 6) Vanderbilt Commodores: 3-2 (6-3)
- 7) Ole Miss Rebels: 3-2 (7-2)
- 8) Alabama Crimson Tide: 3-2 (6-2)
- 9) South Carolina Gamecocks: 3-3 (5-3)
- 10) Arkansas Razorbacks: 3-3 (5-4)
- 11) Missouri Tigers: 2-2 (6-2)
- 12) Florida Gators: 2-3 (4-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners: 1-4 (5-4)
- 14) Auburn Tigers: 1-5 (3-6)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats: 1-6 (3-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs: 0-5 (27)
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
Okay, so the first one here is easy: win out and you’re in. Though that’s not the case for every team, if Georgia wins out, they’ll knock Ole Miss and Tennessee out of the picture and cruise into the SEC Championship with a lone 7-point loss to Alabama and picking up wins against road apples in the process (UMass and Georgia Tech).
The CFN FPM looks at the Georgia schedule and gives them a high chance of making the SEC Championship Game. Georgia’s winning probabilities for each game remaining are below:
- @ Ole Miss: 62.6%
- vs. Tennessee: 73.0%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
- Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 25.14%
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
For the Texas A&M Aggies, the road map is just as clear as it is for Georgia: win out and you’re in. That is because they’d finish with a single loss and would knock out Texas in the final game of the year. This also includes the fact that Georgia and Tennessee will split the game and they’ve already beaten LSU, the only other one-loss SEC team they’d have to contend with for a spot in the championship game.
CFN’s FPM gives them a chance to do just that, despite issues at the quarterback position and Le’Veon Moss’ injury.
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- vs. Texas: 44.4%
- Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 7.94%
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Tennessee’s SEC Championship Road Map
Though the Tennessee road map isn’t as clean and clear, a lone loss to Arkansas doesn’t hurt them if they can get over the proverbial Georgia hump. A win against Georgia and holding off a pesky Vanderbilt team guarantees them a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
However, unlike the teams above them here, the Vols have the hardest shot due to having to travel to Athens.
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
- @ Georgia: 27.0%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.3%
- Tennessee’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 6.81%
Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map
The Texas Longhorns have more than just the SEC Championship on their mind as they eye the College Football Playoffs. However, a season-ending date with Texas A&M is looming large as the Longhorns have arguably the easiest slate of the challengers from Weeks 11-13.
The CFN FPM gives the Longhorns a heavy favorite in each game, even on the road in College Station.
- vs. Florida: 96.7%
- @ Arkansas: 82.1%
- vs. Kentucky: 93.6%
- @ Texas A&M: 55.6%
- Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 25.14%
LSU’s SEC Championship Road Map
The LSU Tigers can throw a large wrench into the plans of the SEC Championship picture by winning out. They’ll knock out Alabama in the process and would end the year with a 10-2 record and one conference loss to Texas A&M.
Theoretically, LSU could finish 10-2 overall and 7-1 in SEC play and still miss the SEC Championship Game if A&M and Georgia win out due to the new tiebreaker rules.
That’s why the CFN FPM is so low on LSU’s Championship Winning probabilities despite being favored in three of their last four and a toss-up for the Alabama game.
- vs. Alabama: 50.0%
- @ Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
- LSU’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 8.59%
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Road Map
So, if you’ve read this far, you’re a fan of the Ole Miss Rebels or you’re a fan of chaos. The Rebels have an ugly loss to Kentucky in SEC play this season and then a road loss to LSU. All that means is that they have to have some luck to get into the SEC Championship Game, but mathematically, they are not out of it.
First things first, Ole Miss has to win out, obviously. In doing so, they’d own the head-to-head over a now two-loss Georgia team. Then, they’d need Georgia to defeat Tennessee and wait for A&M and Texas to push one of those teams to two losses in the conference.
Then, and only then, would we have a multitude of two-loss conference teams and then, and only then, would we be in a position to talk about Ole Miss’ SEC Championship berth.
Crazier things have happened, but Ole Miss will hate the Bulldogs in Week 11, but love ’em in Week 12 when they play Tennessee to start their improbable journey.
- vs. Georgia: 37.4%
- @ Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.9%
- Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 14.31%
Vanderbilt’s SEC Championship Road Map
No, this is not very likely at all. In fact, it’s so super unlikely, that the Vanderbilt Commodores themselves probably don’t even think this could happen.
But the math indicates that Vanderbilt is indeed still alive in the SEC Championship race, and who better to trust math with than the Commodores?
They would need some serious help, but with games against LSU and Tennessee on the docket, they weed out two of the teams they’d be vying for the second spot with themselves. Win out and hope for some help. Vandy still has a chance.
- vs. South Carolina: 60.6%
- @ LSU: 25.1%
- vs. Tennessee: 34.3%
- SEC Championship Winning Probability: 0.70%
Alabama’s SEC Championship Road Map
I bet you didn’t think you’d get this far and read Vanderbilt’s road map to the SEC Championship before you read the Alabama Crimson Tide road map for a postseason berth, did ya?
Here we are, though, here we are indeed. The Crimson Tide needs some serious help, sitting at 3-2 in the SEC and losing to two contenders above them. They would have to knock off LSU and then get some help with a Georgia loss and/or a Texas/Texas A&M loss that isn’t two each other, in order to make it.
It’s possible but highly improbable. Alabama is alive but hanging on by a thread.
- @ LSU: 50.0%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- @ Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
- Alabama’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 3.00%
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