A week ago, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the Tennessee Volunteers, all but guaranteeing fans a tie for second place (or first place) in the final SEC Football Standings this season. With the SEC Championship Game scenarios unfolding in front of our eyes, CFN aims to make it as simple to understand how Week 13 should shape the title picture going forward.
SEC Championship Game Odds
Using the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game, the SEC Championship Game odds from Vegas told us two things: Texas is the barometer and Alabama isn’t quite as out of it as you’d expect.
Current Vegas odds to win the SEC:
- Texas: +145
- Alabama: +150
- Georgia: +310
- Texas A&M: +1700
- Ole Miss: +5000
- Tennessee: +10000
Let’s get to our simulation numbers now.
We locked in the results from each game in the SEC this season. Then, we simulated the SEC season over 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final two weeks of action in the process.
Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
SEC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Texas 41.08%
- Alabama 21.54%
- Georgia 20.26%
- Texas A&M 16.55%
- Ole Miss 0.31%
- Tennessee 0.27%
These numbers above are how many times each team made the SEC Championship Game, and subsequently won the SEC in the process. Any team not listed above never made it to the SEC Championship Game.
MORE: Understand the Full SEC Tiebreaking Procedures Ahead of Week 13
The current standings are below. Scroll just below those to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the SEC.
Updated SEC Standings
1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 overall (5-1 SEC)
2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
5) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
6) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (5-3)
8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map
The Longhorns own the easiest path, so to speak. That’s because they A) control their own destiny for a first-place finish and B) have the highest percentage chance to win the remaining games of the two first-place teams (Texas A&M). CFN’s simulation model gives the Longhorns a 41.08% chance to win the SEC, making the SEC Championship Game on over 50% of the simulations and knocking off whomever is in front of them nearly 66% of the time.
Following Week 12, Texas and A&M ended the weekend as those aforementioned two first-place teams. They now will hope to win their Week 13 games against Kentucky and Auburn, respectively, to play a play-in game in Week 14. The winner of that game would automatically make the SEC Championship and cause a multi-team tie for second place.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The implications of an SEC play-in game only sweeten the return of the A&M-UT rivalry game, as these two teams last played in 2011 as members of the Big 12. To get there, though, the Longhorns need to beat Kentucky in Week 13, something our Playoff Predictor really thinks will happen.
- vs. Kentucky: 94.4%
- @ Texas A&M: 61.9%
- Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 41.08%
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
So for Texas A&M, the road is the same as the Longhorns’: Win, and they’re in. Unlike Texas, though, the Aggies have the harder roadmap because our sim doesn’t quite like their chances to go undefeated down the backstretch.
With a game at Auburn that they should win, the season likely lies within their ability do defeat archrival Texas in the regular season finale.
With all eyes on the Aggies and Longhorns in that game, A&M will be pushed. That being said, even with a loss in one of their final two games, the Aggies are at least tied with Georgia for the final spot in the SEC Championship Game.
But, it’d be much simpler for A&M to just win out and control their own destiny to the Championship Game and Playoffs alike.
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- vs. Texas: 38.9%
- Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 16.55%
Alabama’s SEC Championship Road Map
Ok, so the Crimson Tide handled their business in Week 12 but the real test of the back-half of their schedule was always set to be Weeks 13 and 14. With games in Norman and at home in the Iron Bowl, Alabama needs to win out just to remain tied with the Georgia Bulldogs.
But, for Alabama to make the SEC Championship Game, they’d need a handful of things to happen. First off, you can guarantee that either Texas or A&M are going to drop at least one of their final games. That puts the tiebreaking threshold to any team with two losses in SEC play. In Alabama’s sake, it’d be them, Georgia, and A&M or Texas.
There is also Tennessee and Ole Miss who can finish with two losses in SEC play, convoluting things a bit more. So let’s break it down how ‘Bama can get in.
First up, this is the scenario if Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss win out as Georgia’s already in tiebreaker picture due to their completion of SEC play with two losses. This is also factoring in one of Texas and Texas A&M losing in their meeting to end the season. Most likely, this situation includes A&M losing to Texas, as our numbers indicate.
The first tiebreaker is simply head-to-head record of tie teams. In this instance, the SEC tiebreaking procedure states that a perfect round-robin would be needed to clarify the leaders in a head-to-head situation. As that is not the case here, we move down the tiebreaking procedure.
Next up is if either team lost or won a game against every team that is among the tied teams. Since these teams did not all play one another you can essentially turn tiebreaker No. 1 off completely.
Up next would be tiebreaker No. 2: Record against all common SEC opponents.
- Alabama didn’t play Florida or Mississippi State; who the other four did
- Alabama and Georgia didn’t play Arkansas; who the other three did
- Georgia and Tennessee didn’t play LSU or South Carolina; who the other three did
- Tennesssee and Ole Miss didn’t play Auburn; who the other three did
- A&M and Georgia played Texas; the other three did not
- Tennessee and Ole Miss played Kentucky; the other three did not
- A&M and Alabama played Missouri; the other three did not
- A&M and Georgia played Texas; the other three did not
In this scenario, there are no common opponents. Similarly, if Texas were to lose to A&M, this scenario also doesn’t work as there is no opponent shared between the four teams below and/or Texas and Texas A&M.
Texas:
Mississippi State (0-6)
Oklahoma (1-5)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-3)
Florida (3-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Kentucky (1-6)
Texas A&M (5-1)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 22-31 (41.5%)
A&M:
Florida (3-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Missouri (3-3)
Mississippi State (0-6)
LSU (3-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Auburn (1-5)
Texas (5-1)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-29 (44.2%)
Georgia:
Alabama (4-2)
Auburn (1-5)
Mississippi State (0-6)
Texas (5-1)
Florida (3-4)
Ole Miss (4-2)
Tennessee (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 22-22 (50.0%)
Tennessee:
Oklahoma (1-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Florida (3-4)
Alabama (4-2)
Kentucky (1-6)
Mississippi State (0-6)
Georgia (6-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 18-29 (38.3%)
Alabama:
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Tennessee (5-2)
Missouri (3-3)
LSU (3-3)
Oklahoma (1-5)
Auburn (1-5)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 27-26 (50.9%)
Ole Miss:
Kentucky (1-6)
South Carolina (5-3)
LSU (3-3)
Oklahoma (1-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Georgia (6-2)
Florida (3-4)
Mississippi State (0-6)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 22-33 (40.0%)
So where do they go after tiebreaker No. 2? Next up is ‘record against highest-placed common SEC opponents’ — which once again — there are no common opponents in this scenario. Next tiebreaker is ‘cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents’ among the tied teams. And that’s where things take the turn for the Crimson Tide.
By virtue of a one-game lead over .500 for their opponents in SEC play, the Crimson Tide would be in sole possession of second place in these standings, and thus place them in the SEC Championship Game against Texas or Texas A&M in joining the fray.
If Alabama makes the SEC Championship Game, the Tide have nearly a 40% chance at defeating whichever opponent is in front of them.
- @ Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
- Alabama’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 21.54%
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Road Map
So, if you’ve read this far, you’re a fan of the Ole Miss Rebels or you’re a fan of chaos. The Rebels have an ugly loss to Kentucky in SEC play this season and then a road loss to LSU. They also have the second-lowest opponent winning percentage in conference play, thus knocking them out if we get to tiebreaker No. 4.
So who do the Rebels have to get some help from to make the SEC Championship Game? From friendly foes Oklahoma and Kentucky in the sense that the Sooners would need to beat Alabama to knock them out of the tie and Kentucky to beat Texas, setting up the Longhorns for elimination from the Aggies in Week 14. Also, an Auburn win against A&M also helps the Rebels.
As we said last week, Ole Miss obviously has to also win out. With their win against Georgia, they now own the head-to-head over a two-loss Bulldogs team. With Georgia defeating Tennessee and the inevitable A&M-Texas game pushing one of those teams to two losses in the conference, Ole Miss can sit and wait for chaos to ensue.
Right now, though, Ole Miss can win the head-to-head against Georgia, but that’s about it. So getting the other teams out of the picture is the only way through it appears. Win out, and hope for the chaos to continue following you, Ole Miss.
- @ Florida: 93.4%
- vs. Mississippi State: 98.0%
- Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 0.31%
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
For the Bulldogs, things got real murky following their loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago. Now, with a win against Tennessee in Week 12, they’re guaranteed to at least go to tiebreakers for the second spot.
So what does that look like, and what tiebreakers can they win in order to get there?
Considering the facts outlined above, as long as they don’t have to go up against Ole Miss or Alabama in a head-to-head tiebreaker (A&M or Texas would have to lose two and Tennessee would have to lose as well for this to happen), the Bulldogs can hope that the no-head-to-head tiebreakers and no-common SEC opponent procedure helps them out here.
In the likely case of a four- or five-team situation, the Bulldogs need a few more conference wins from uncommon opponents as they currently find themselves behind Alabama in the fourth tiebreaker.
So, breaking it down for clarity’s sake for the Bulldogs, the uncommon opponents between them and Alabama are:
- Mississippi State
- Texas
- Florida
- Ole Miss
Whereas Alabama’s uncommon opponents are:
- Vanderbilt
- South Carolina
- Missouri
- LSU
With only a one-game different in their SEC opponent conference winning percentage right now, and a lot of football left to be played from those eight teams, this could go the way of the Bulldogs quickly, or fall by the wayside just as fast.
If you’re a Georgia fan, here’s what you want to happen for their uncommon SEC opponents to ‘Bama, as they’ll split two games down the stretch due to Ole Miss’ remaining opponents of Florida in Week 13 and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
The best record possible to add to their conference record is: 5-2
- Mississippi State 1-1 (win over Missouri, loss to Ole Miss)
- Texas 2-0 (win out)
- Florida 1-0 (win vs. Ole Miss, non-conf. game vs. FSU not factored)
- Ole Miss 1-1 (win over Mississippi State, loss to Florida)
For Alabama, they can add a 5-1 record among their uncommon opponents:
- Vanderbilt 1-1 (loss to LSU, win over Tennessee)
- South Carolina 0-0 (no conference games left)
- Missouri 2-0 (wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas)
- LSU 2-0 (wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma)
Rest assured, Dawg fans, if they were to make the SEC Championship Game, they have the highest winning probability against any of these teams not-named Texas vying for that spot right now.
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
- Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 20.26%
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.