SEC Championship Game Scenarios: Updated Projections and Odds Following Ole Miss’ Win Over Georgia

    While Bama-LSU go head to head, the latest road map to the SEC Championship Game is here. Following Ole Miss' win over Georgia, who has the easiest road?

    The SEC Championship Game is fast approaching now that we’re in the month of November. We started Week 11 with five one-loss teams, but now the road map is a bit trickier for teams in contention.

    If it’s not win-out, then how can each team win the SEC? Let’s map it out.

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    SEC Championship Game Odds

    The Vegas lines will be out soon enough, but before we get their latest SEC Championship Odds after Week 11, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.

    We locked in the results from the noon and 3:30 games in the SEC and simulated the rest of the SEC season over 10,00 times. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.

    SEC Championship Game Winning Probability

    • Texas: 46.32%
    • Ole Miss: 16.51%
    • Tennessee: 13.70%
    • Texas A&M: 6.92%
    • Georgia: 5.62%
    • Alabama: 4.52%
    • LSU: 0.04%

    These numbers above are how many times each team made the SEC Championship Game, and subsequently won the SEC in the process. Any team not listed above never made it to the SEC Championship Game.

    The current standings are below, with the results of the Tennessee-Mississippi State and LSU-Alabama games not complete. Scroll just below those to find the road maps for every team in the hunt. Here’s how the table sits right now in the SEC.

    Updated SEC Standings

    Texas’ SEC Championship Road Map

    The Texas Longhorns had a 25.14% SEC Championship Game winning probability before dismantling the Florida Gators on Saturday, and before Georgia lost to Ole Miss. That chance to win the SEC has now skyrocketed to 46.32%, by far the favorite to win the SEC this season.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The CFN FPM makes the Longhorns a heavy favorite in each game, even on the road in College Station, in what appears to be an SEC eliminator

    • @ Arkansas: 83.3%
    • vs. Kentucky: 94.3%
    • @ Texas A&M: 61.1%
    • Texas’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 46.32%

    Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Road Map

    So, if you’ve read this far, you’re a fan of the Ole Miss Rebels or you’re a fan of chaos. The Rebels have an ugly loss to Kentucky in SEC play this season and then a road loss to LSU. All that means is that they had to have some luck to get into the SEC Championship Game.

    As we said during the week, Ole Miss obviously has to win out. With their win against Georgia, they now own the head-to-head over a two-loss Bulldogs team. Now, they need Georgia to defeat Tennessee and wait for A&M and Texas to push one of those teams to two losses in the conference.

    Then, and only then, would we have a multitude of two-loss conference teams and then, and only then, would we be in a position to talk about Ole Miss’ SEC Championship berth. The only factor that drives a stake through their chances is that LSU loss a handful of weeks ago.

    Crazier things have happened, but Ole Miss has to take that hate they had for Georgia in Week 11 and parlay that over to some love in Week 12, rooting on the Bulldogs to defeat Tennessee to continue their improbable journey.

    • @ Florida: 93.4%
    • vs. Mississippi State: 98.0%
    • Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Winning Probability: 16.51%

    Tennessee’s SEC Championship Road Map

    Though the Tennessee road map isn’t as clean and clear, a lone loss to Arkansas doesn’t hurt them if they can get over the proverbial Georgia hump. A win against Georgia and holding off a pesky Vanderbilt team guarantees them a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

    However, unlike the teams above them here, the Vols have the hardest shot due to having to travel to Athens. Those numbers got a bit easier, though, following Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss. But that doesn’t mean Georgia is any less likely to be a fired-up unit against the Vols in Week 12.

    • vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
    • @ Georgia: 27.0%
    • vs. UTEP: 99.9%
    • vs. Vanderbilt: 79.3%
    • Tennessee’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 13.70%

    Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map

    For the Texas A&M Aggies, the road map is just as clear as it is for Texas: win out and you’re in. That is because they’d finish with a single loss and would knock out Texas in the final game of the year. With Georgia out of the way, the one-loss teams in the conference are down to just three, with LSU’s loss to Alabama.

    However, it’s not that simple if the Aggies win all the way to Texas and lose to the Longhorns, which our CFN FPM is projecting. That’s because of the secondary tiebreaker between a potential two-loss Georgia, and in this scenario, a two-loss A&M.

    A&M and Georgia have both defeated Florida (by 13 and 14 points, respectively, and Mississippi State (by 10 points apiece), and both play Auburn and Texas as their common SEC opponents. If the Aggies were to lose to Texas, they’d be 3-1 (assuming they defeat Auburn) against those three teams, whereas Georgia sits at 4-0 against those teams.

    That would put Georgia in the title game over a two-loss Aggies, so they truly are in a ‘win-to-get-in’ mode this season.

    CFN’s FPM gives them a chance to do just that, but that game against Texas is bringing them down.

    • vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
    • @ Auburn: 83.0%
    • vs. Texas: 38.9%
    • Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 6.92%

    Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map

    For the Bulldogs, it got much murkier following their loss to Ole Miss in Week 11. After sporting a 25.14% chance to win the SEC Championship, their loss to the Rebels pushes their chances down to a measly 5.40%.

    That’s because they’ll need some serious help to get there. As mentioned above, however, they do own the proverbial two-loss tiebreaker between A&M by virtue of beating Texas earlier in the year, but with the way their offense played against Ole Miss, knocking off Tennessee in Week 12 isn’t as much of a given as it was last week.

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    Combine that with the fact that they’d need LSU to lose a game as well, and you’ve got yourself a long shot that no one would actually want to face in the SEC Championship.

    The CFN FPM took all that into consideration and churned out their new probability as a stark difference in last week’s number.

    • @ Ole Miss: 62.6%
    • vs. Tennessee: 73.0%
    • vs. UMass: 99.9%
    • vs. Georgia Tech: 93.1%
    • Georgia’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 5.62%

    Alabama’s SEC Championship Road Map

    The Alabama SEC Championship map needs a lot of help. We said prior to the kickoff in Week 11 that it was imperative to note that they have to win their game against LSU in order to even sniff a chance at making the SEC Championship, let alone win it.

    Well, they did that in commanding fashion and now sit ripe to make the College Football Playoffs as an at-large, if not crash the SEC Championship party.

    For the Tide, at this rate, they have to hope Georgia beats Tennessee and maybe, just maybe get some luck by virtue of a slip-up by Texas, Texas A&M, or Ole Miss to make their tiebreaker scenarios a bit easier. A lot remaining to be seen, but one good thing for ‘Bama fans is that they’ll at least own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia, even if they don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tennessee.

    It’s possible but still highly improbable. Alabama is alive and their thread got a bit bigger by dismantling LSU.

    • vs. Mercer: 99.9%
    • @ Oklahoma: 81.1%
    • vs. Auburn: 94.3%
    • Alabama’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 4.52%

    LSU’s SEC Championship Road Map

    Mathematically, the LSU Tigers aren’t out of it. However, they’d need some serious help to make the SEC Championship Game, let alone win it. In fact, our sim model only saw the Tigers make the title game on 0.04% of the sims following their embarrassing loss to Alabama.

    • @ Florida: 89.0%
    • vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
    • vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
    • LSU’s SEC Championship Winning Probability: 0.04%

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