The San Diego State Aztecs are riding high with a four-game win streak against the UNLV Rebels and a commanding 23-9 all-time series lead. But these aren’t the Rebels of old. Under head coach Barry Odom, the program is on the verge of something unprecedented—back-to-back bowl games for the first time in history.
Our San Diego State vs. UNLV preview breaks down this intriguing matchup, delivering key betting insights to help guide your picks.
San Diego State vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All San Diego State vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -14.5 - Spread
UNLV -22 - Moneyline
UNLV -1800, San Diego State +1000 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
CBSSN
While SDSU is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games, the program is only 1-4 ATS in the previous five meetings with UNLV. That said, as good as the Rebels have been this season, they are only 1-4 ATS in their past five matchups.
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The 55-point total may seem high to some, but the over is still firmly in play with how these two squads have performed this year:
- The over has cashed in four of SDSU’s last five Mountain West contests.
- The over has cashed in eight of UNLV’s last 12 games overall.
San Diego State’s Winning Probability
The Aztecs’ bowl aspirations are technically still on life support, but one more loss would pull the plug entirely. Assuming San Diego State does drop one of their final three games, it would mark the third straight year without a bowl appearance — the team’s longest drought since 1999-2009.
- at UNLV: 13.2%
- at Utah State: 49.6%
- vs. Air Force: 54.3%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels only have one double-digit campaign in program history (11-2 in 1984). If they win out this season, which they are favored to do, they’ll make it two.
- vs. San Diego State: 86.8%
- at San Jose State: 75.3%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for San Diego State vs. UNLV
The Aztecs recently squared off against a similarly talented Boise State team and were routed 56-24 at Albertsons Stadium. Don’t expect Week 12 to bring a much different outcome.
UNLV leans heavily on the run, ranking eighth in run rate (63.5%) and tied for 17th in yards per rush attempt (5.3). That’s bad news for an SDSU run defense that ranks 110th in EPA and 85th in success rate. The mismatch in the trenches is likely to define this game.
Both teams allow over two sacks per game (UNLV 2.22, SDSU 2.44) but also excel at generating pressure, ranking in the top 15 for sacks per game (UNLV 3.11, t-11th; SDSU 3.22, 6th). The difference? Rebels QB Hajj-Malik Williams is a savvy veteran who can escape the heat, while Aztecs true freshman Danny O’Neill is still finding his footing behind two leaky offensive tackles.
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Special teams and discipline will also factor in heavily. UNLV leads the nation with five blocked punts, while San Diego State struggles with penalties (82, the fourth most in the nation). The Rebels also dominate in turnover margin (+12 compared to SDSU’s +2), giving them yet another edge.
With just three games left, expect UNLV to stay aggressive. The Rebels should not only win but comfortably cover the nearly three-touchdown spread.
Prediction: UNLV 37, San Diego State 13
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