Here they come again – the Boise State Broncos are back under the Friday night lights! After delivering one of the season’s most thrilling games last week, Spencer Danielson’s squad faces off against the San Diego State Aztecs in Week 10, aiming to solidify their position in the Mountain West Championship race.
Our San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction has you covered with all the essentials: the latest betting odds, team insights, and what to expect as both teams push through the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All San Diego State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -18.5 - Spread
Boise State -24 - Moneyline
Boise State -2800, San Diego State +1300 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
42 degrees, 4 mph winds, chance of showers - How To Watch
FS1
Friday night marks the 10th meeting between Boise State and San Diego State, and after winning the last two encounters, the Broncos take a 5-4 head-to-head advantage into the Mountain West matchup. Albertsons Stadium hasn’t always been a fortress for the home team, with the Aztecs winning on the road in 2018 and 2012. Can they cause an upset on Friday night?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Understandably, Boise State is a significant favorite. That’s been a comfortable position for them to be in this year, winning every game where they’ve been favored. San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog this year. However, they’re 3-2 against the spread in that position, while the Broncos have thrice failed to cover as a double-digit favorite.
San Diego State’s Winning Probability
It’s a new era in San Diego, with Sean Lewis taking over for Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are one win away from matching their 2023 record (4-8), but they’d assuredly prefer besting that subpar number. While win No. 4 will likely allude them this week, according to the FPM, it could be around the corner.
- at Boise State: 8.3%
- vs. New Mexico: 52.8%
- at UNLV: 16.5%
- at Utah State: 50.4%
- vs. Air Force: 73.0%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
The Broncos don’t have a win probability under 80% in their final five games, painting a clear path toward the Group of Five’s spot in the College Football Playoff. However, they can’t become complacent, as we’ve already seen several major upsets this season.
- vs. San Diego State: 91.7%
- vs. Nevada: 92.1%
- at San Jose State: 83.0%
- at Wyoming: 93.6%
- vs. Oregon State: 80.2%
Prediction for San Diego State vs. Boise State
Though SDSU remains undefeated in conference play, their wins have come against the 1-7 Wyoming Cowboys and the 3-5 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Last week, the Aztecs looked strong against a formidable Washington State team but let a 26-14 lead slip away, conceding 15 unanswered points in the final quarter to lose 29-26. Meanwhile, Boise State notched their biggest win of the season, edging out UNLV 29-24 on Friday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty was “held” to 128 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries in last week’s showdown, so expect Boise State to try boosting his numbers in Week 10.
Given SDSU’s struggles against the run—they rank 86th nationally, allowing 159.6 yards per game—Jeanty could be in line for another 200-yard performance.
No need to mince words here—Boise State is likely to win by multiple scores. The question is, can they cover the three-touchdown spread? In short, yes.
The Aztecs rank second in the nation in penalty yards per game (90.57) and convert only 33.66% of their third downs, setting them up to play catch-up with true freshman Danny O’Neill at quarterback.
That plays right into the hands of a Boise State defense that leads the country in sacks per game (5.0). Scoring won’t come easy for SDSU, and since the Broncos tend to ease off late, the under is the bet to take here.
Prediction: Boise State 38, San Diego State 13
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