The race to the CUSA Championship Game comes down to the final two weeks of the season, and the Sam Houston Bearkats and Jacksonville State Gamecocks meet in Week 13 in a pivotal game that could dramatically alter the make up of the title game.
Who will prevail? Our Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
All Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -6 - Spread
Jacksonville State -6 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -205, Sam Houston +170 - Over/Under
56 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, warm with plenty of sunshine, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Saturday marks the fifth time that Jacksonville State and Sam Houston have met, with three matchups when the teams played at the FCS level. 2023 was their first faceoff as FBS teams, and they played out a free-scoring slugfest that smashed past the predicted 56-point line offered by DraftKings. 2024 is the first time they’ve met in Jacksonville since a Gamecocks win in 2015.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Jacksonville State is an unsurprising favorite as the undefeated CUSA outfit in this game. The Gamecocks are 6-2 outright when favored and haven’t lost since mid-September. Meanwhile, Sam Houston is 2-1 as an outright and spread underdog. Neither team has covered in November, and our Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State prediction favors the Bearkats to keep it close in Week 13.
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Sam Houston has a 34.3% chance of beating Jacksonville State. The Bearkats have defied many expectations in their second year in the FBS, but overcoming the top talent in the conference has proven problematic, with a defeat to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers nestled between their five CUSA wins.
Here are the win probabilities for Sam Houston’s remaining two games of the 2024 season:
- at Jacksonville State: 34.3%
- vs. Liberty: 51.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bearkats would end the year with a 9-3 overall record, including a 6-2 CUSA campaign. That would be a remarkable turnaround for the program after a difficult entry year at the FBS level, and even with defeat to Jacksonville State, they’re not completely dead in the race to the CUSA Championship Game.
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Jacksonville State has a 65.7% chance of beating Sam Houston on Saturday afternoon, a win that would likely seal their place in the CUSA Championship Game. The Gamecocks have rebounded from a difficult opening to the year to win seven straight, including a win over the Liberty Flames.
Here are win probabilities for Jacksonville State’s remaining two games of the 2024 season:
- vs. Sam Houston: 65.7%
- at Western Kentucky: 47.5%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Gamecocks would end the year with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 8-0 CUSA campaign. Jacksonville State has the inside track to the conference title game, and it would be a fool to bet against Rich Rodriguez’s team lifting the crown. Sadly, their three losses to start the season keeps them adrift of the playoff conversation.
Prediction for Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State
At this moment of the season, college football fans are surrounded by pivotal matchups defining conference championships and even the College Football Playoff race. While Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State doesn’t fit into the latter category (no CUSA team is in the latest rankings or even received an AP Poll vote), it shouldn’t be overlooked in Week 13.
There are significant implications for the CUSA Championship Game, with both teams capable of featuring in the December 6 game. The Gamecocks bring an undefeated conference record and a commanding ground game to the table, while the Bearkats boast a superior overall record and dominant defence. So, who holds the advantage, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Where better place to start than college football’s premier rushing attack? Jacksonville State leads the nation in rushing touchdowns (38), sits fourth for rushing yards per game (258.20), and seventh with 5.69 yards per carry. No team in CUSA has a remotely comparable ground game, with the Gamecocks 15 rushing scores ahead of their nearest competition.
It starts with running back Tre Stewart, who is absolute dynamite out of the backfield. No player in CUSA has more 20+ rushing yard plays, and he leads the conference across every conceivable running back statistic. Dual-threat QB Tyler Huff adds a further dynamic on the ground, and a solid line led by Clay Webb helps carve the way for an offense averaging 38.7 points per game.
What makes this game interesting, and potentially close, is that Sam Houston has one of the top defenses in the conference. The unit has allowed just 20.1 points per game and has been particularly solid against the run. They’ve allowed just 124.10 rushing yards per game, stifled backs to just 3.66 yards per carry, and given up just 11 rushing touchdowns all season.
Defensive lineman Chris Murray has made a living in opposition backfields all season long, tallying 10 tackles for loss while leading CUSA with 5.5 sacks. Yet the stars of the Sam Houston defense are defensive back Caleb Weaver (53 solo tackles, four interceptions) and Kavian Gaither, whose stats don’t do true justice to his impact in all facets of the Bearkats defense.
Although Sam Houston can hold Jacksonville State to their lowest points total since the defeat to the Louisville Cardinals, can the Bearkats offense take advantage of a dubious Gamecocks defense? Luke Olson’s unit has allowed 30+ points in half of their games this season, ranking 98th nationally for scoring defense. They’ve been a QB’s dream, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt.
However, KC Keeler’s team has struggled on offense since Hunter Watson’s mid-season injury. They’ve averaged just 14 points over the past four games, including just two scores in the other biggest game of their CUSA season — against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Watson, Jevyon Ducker, and DJ McKinney can put the Gamecocks under pressure, but ultimately, Sam Houston might not have the offensive firepower to get this thing over the finish line against a Jacksonville State team that knows how to put the nail in the coffin of a team’s dreams if they have the ball near game’s end.
Prediction: Sam Houston 27, Jacksonville State 30
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