The Sam Houston Bearkats and FIU Panthers kicked off Week 9 of the college football season with the return of “Weekday CUSA” on Tuesday. Will the Bearkats secure bowl eligibility with a victory, or can the Panthers embrace the flair of their “Vice City” uniforms for a stylish win?
In our Sam Houston vs. FIU prediction, we dive into everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Sam Houston vs. FIU Betting Preview
All Sam Houston vs. FIU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Sam Houston -3.5 - Spread
Sam Houston -5 - Moneyline
Sam Houston -198, FIU +164 - Over/Under
47 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Pitbull Stadium | Miami, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, partly cloudy and humid, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Tuesday night marks the second meeting between FIU and Sam Houston. The first edition was a free-scoring slugfest that went to double overtime in Huntsville and resulted in a Panthers win on the road.
At that point in the season, KC Keeler’s team had yet to win a single game in their FBS debut, and the Bearkats are a much-improved team this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread has been all over the place this week as oddsmakers awaited news on Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson. While it had been as high as -6 in favor of Sam Houston, it dropped to -5 with around 30 minutes to go until kick off. The Bearkats are 5-2 covering the spread this year.
They’re 3-1 covering as a favorite this year, with the one coming from the Western Kentucky defeat where CFN FPM made them an underdog.
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Sam Houston has a 60.6% chance of taking down the Panthers in Pitbull Stadium on Tuesday night, which would secure bowl eligibility for the program.
- at FIU: 60.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 64.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 82.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 47.5%
- vs. Liberty: 34.2%
If those win probabilities hold true, Sam Houston would end the season with an 8-4 record, securing bowl eligibility in their second full season as an FBS outfit. It would mark a remarkable turnaround from a 3-9 debut campaign.
However, with two further projected CUSA defeats in addition to the Week 8 defeat to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, they would likely miss out on a spot in the CUSA Championship Game.
FIU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, FIU is given just a 39.4% chance of winning this “Weekday CUSA” matchup. Having lost two in a row, the Panthers desperately need to overcome the odds if they want to salvage anything from this season.
- vs. Sam Houston: 39.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 64.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 33.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 73.4%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 58.9%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Panthers would end 2024 with a 5-7 record. While that would be a one-win improvement compared to the 2023 campaign, FIU would miss out on bowl eligibility for the fifth successive season. It would also be the third consecutive campaign with a losing record for head coach Mike MacIntyre.
Prediction for Sam Houston vs. FIU
Two teams with contrasting records kick off the college football Week 9 slate as the 5-2 Bearkats head to Miami to face the 2-5 Panthers in “Weekday CUSA” action. Both squads are coming off Week 8 losses, and as mentioned earlier, bowl eligibility is on the line for each.
Can Sam Houston rebound with a convincing win? Will the Panthers take advantage of a vulnerable Bearkats squad to notch their second CUSA victory of the year? Who holds the upper hand, and where will the key matchups unfold?
The biggest question mark around this game all week has been the health of Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson. The former JUCO standout exited at halftime during the Western Kentucky game and did not return, leading to a scoreless second half for the Bearkats. Prior to his exit, Watson had thrown for 128 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
Head coach K.C. Keeler told reporters early in the week that Watson has been seeing a chiropractor, and his status had remained a mystery leading up to kick off. The difference between Watson and backup Bauer was evident in last Wednesday’s game, but the Bearkats will roll with the former Central Michigan Chippewas quarterback on Tuesday night.
Bauer has the mobility to make plays with his legs. Sam Houston has proven it can dominate on the ground, leveraging its quarterback in tandem with standout running backs Jeyvon Ducker and DJ McKinney, creating one of the top rushing attacks in CUSA. And guess which team has one of the weakest rushing defenses in the conference?
That’s right—FIU. The Panthers have allowed the second-most yards per carry (4.87) and rushing touchdowns (19) in CUSA. After being run over by a UTEP ground game that had previously struggled, it’s unlikely that MacIntyre’s squad will be able to keep pace with the Bearkats.
While Watson’s absence shifts the dynamic, Tuesday’s matchup leans in favor of a Sam Houston victory.
Prediction: Sam Houston 31, FIU 21
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.