After an enthralling weekend of action, 19 undefeated college football teams remain. Can any of those programs run the table and emerge with a perfect 12-0 record at the end of the 2024 campaign? According to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, one team stands above all others after Week 5.
College Football Undefeated Teams Ranked
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for the undefeated college football teams winning their remaining games.
- Texas Longhorns – 31.3%
- Liberty Flames – 25.2%
- Oregon Ducks – 21.1%
- James Madison Dukes – 20.8%
- Miami Hurricanes – 18.9%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 16.4%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 14.6%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 14.1%
- Tennessee Volunteers – 10.5%
- UNLV Rebels – 9.8%
- Missouri Tigers – 6.9%
- Iowa State Cyclones – 4.2%
- BYU Cougars – 4%
- Army Black Knights – 1.6%
- Navy Midshipmen – 0.8%
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights – 0.7%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 0.7%
- Duke Blue Devils – 0.2%
- Pittsburgh Panthers – 0.4%
Texas Longhorns – 31.3%
The Texas Longhorns might have been unseated from the top of the AP Poll by the Alabama Crimson Tide, but they’re in a clear league of their own as far as the chances of going undefeated through the entire 2024 college football season go. While they have three ranked teams on their remaining schedule, Steve Sarkisian’s team has a 31.3% chance of running the table.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Texas currently boasts the 11th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, paired with the number two scoring defense in all of college football. Having allowed just one sack per game, they have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and only two teams in the country have converted more red zone possessions into a touchdown. Circle Oct. 19 as their biggest test: Georgia.
Liberty Flames – 21.2%
Hurricane Helene washed away the most difficult game on the Liberty Flames’ schedule, leaving them with the easiest run to the end of the year and a 21.2% chance of going undefeated for the second consecutive season. Jamey Chadwell’s team now has the easiest strength of schedule in the country and is favored to win every matchup that stretches out in front of them.
The Flames’ toughest test will come on Nov. 23 against a resurgent Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team that will likely serve as a preview of the CUSA Championship Game. With a top-50 scoring offense led by highly-regarded quarterback Kaidon Salter and a similarly ranked defense, Liberty has established itself as one of the top programs at the Group of Five level.
Oregon Ducks – 21.1%
It hasn’t always been pretty, and it hasn’t always been convincing, but the Oregon Ducks have routinely found a way to get the job done this year. They were expected to be a challenger at the top of the Big Ten ahead of the season, and Dan Lanning’s team enters Week 6 as one of the best undefeated college football teams there is, with a 21.1% chance of winning out.
While that might sound highly optimistic, given they have to play the Ohio State Buckeyes in a heavily competitive Big Ten conference, the CFN FPM actually projects the spread line to be narrowly in Oregon’s favor (-2), given their home-field advantage. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads the nation in completion percentage and is on track to beat the all-time passing yard record.
James Madison Dukes – 20.8%
No Curt Cignetti? No problem. Preseason talk of James Madison’s demise following the departure of their former head coach and half of the Dukes’ team appears to have been dramatically exaggerated as the Bob Chesney era picked up where Cignetti left off. The former FCS outfit is a legitimate Power Four-killer, and comfortably one of the top Group of Five programs in 2024.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
After a conservative start to the season, James Madison has hammered their last two opponents, including a win over North Carolina deemed “embarrassing” by the Tar Heels’ head coach. Ranked 12th in the nation for scoring offense while allowing just seven points per game (if you remove that game against UNC), the Dukes have a 20.8% chance of winning out and 70% of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes – 18.9%
The controversy at the end of the win over the Virginia Tech Hokies somewhat clouded the fact that the Miami Hurricanes are now 5-0 for the first time since 2017, and it looks like they can take on anyone for the remainder of the schedule. A road game at Louisville looks to be the toughest test of a season that has an 18.9% chance of finishing 12-0, and 42.6% chance of an ACC title.
No quarterback in the country has thrown more touchdown passes than Cameron Ward, who looks even better than he did for the Washington State Cougars a year ago. A combination of homegrown talent and carefully handpicked transfer portal additions have led the Hurricanes to have the number two-scoring offense in the country. At the same time, their 2.6 sacks a game also rank second nationally.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.