Two 6-6 teams go head-to-head in Detroit as the New Mexico State Aggies and the Bowling Green Falcons face off in the Quick Lane Bowl. We’ve got all the latest college football betting odds and a New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green prediction.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Betting Preview
- Spread
Bowling Green (-3.5) - Moneyline
Bowling Green (-180), New Mexico State (+155) - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
2:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ford Field, Detroit, MI - Predicted Weather
17.5 degrees, cloudy, 5.8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN, fuboTV
If you thought Christmas finished on the 25th, think again! Santa Claus has scheduled a sneakily entertaining college football clash to keep the festive spirit rolling into Monday. Looking to put your Christmas money on New Mexico State? Feeling bullish on Bowling Green? Let’s examine the New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green odds to find the best value.
Being a narrow favorite might be the downfall for the Falcons when they face the Aggies in the Quick Lane Bowl. Bowling Green is 0-3 against the spread when favored this year. Although they’re 2-1 when they enter the game as the moneyline favorite, those wins came against 2-10 Akron and 5-7 Western Michigan.
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Meanwhile, New Mexico State has covered the spread in four of their last five, winning all four of those, with their only defeat in that span coming to SEC Missouri. As we’ll discover in the New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green prediction, I fancy the Aggies outright and against the spread (obviously).
Although New Mexico State has covered the 48-point line in their last four games, this game has the feeling of a low-scoring affair, with Bowling Green failing to surpass 20 points in five of their last seven games.
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green
It might not feel like it to the casual college football fan, but this Quick Lane matchup between New Mexico State and Bowling Green is kind of a big deal. This is just the fifth bowl game appearance for the Aggies and their first since the 2017 Arizona Bowl.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green takes part in just their 13th ever bowl game and their first since the 2015 GoDaddy Bowl. That game has had two different title sponsors since then, demonstrating the depth of the success drought for the Falcons.
So, which team ends years of disappointment with a postseason win?
Let’s start our New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green prediction with the favored Falcons. Although they haven’t tallied more than 20 points in five of their last seven games, there is talent on the Bowling Green offense.
Leading wide receiver Odieu Hilaire has 704 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns this season. Tight end Christian Sims is an effective, physical weapon for the offense. On his day, quarterback Matt McDonald is capable of orchestrating the offense to great things. The former Boston College QB has thrown for 2,639 yards and 22 touchdowns this fall.
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And yet, they’ve averaged just 23.8 points per game (97th in the nation), hamstrung by a ground game that averages just three yards per carry and less than 100 yards per game. The same can be said for the Falcons’ defense where there are talented players, but the sum of their parts falls far short of expectations. The unit has allowed 33.2 points per game, ranking 116th.
With the offense struggling to score with regularity, and the defense struggling to stop their opposition from scoring, the door is open for New Mexico State to improve to 4-1 in program bowl game history.
Their recent run of form has coincided with the rise of Diego Pavia under center. Coming into the game with Liberty, Pavia had tallied just six touchdowns all season. He threw for three scores while adding another three on the ground to equal his season tally in just one upset win over a Flames team that was on the cusp of losing their head coach at the time.
Having suffered an injury in their final game of the season, Pavia is expected to play in the Quick Lane Bowl, providing a huge boost for the Aggies.
Meanwhile, the strength of their defense should nullify the Falcons’ passing game. New Mexico State has allowed just 6.3 passing yards and a 58.6 completion percentage to opposition quarterbacks. They’ve averaged 24.3 points per game allowed this season, giving them the defensive edge over Bowling Green.
Prediction
New Mexico State 21, Bowling Green 18
