The Purdue Boilermakers are struggling at 1-7 this season, and the road ahead doesn’t get any smoother. According to College Football Network’s Strength of Schedule Metric, the Big Ten’s bottom-dwelling team faces the toughest remaining slate in all of college football. Could Purdue pull off a miracle upset against the powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes?
Probably not. But can they cover the spread? Dive into our Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction to find out where we stand on the spread and total.
Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -30 - Spread
Ohio State -37.5 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
61 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is CFN’s largest Power Four vs. Power Four spread of the year, and we still may have underestimated the magnitude of the gap between these teams. The line opened at Ohio State -38 and has ticked down to 37.5.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of just 53 points and the spread so wide, Vegas thinks little of Purdue here. The implied final score is close to 45-8 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Purdue’s Winning Probability
Poor Purdue. A bad season is about to get worse. Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Boilermakers are heavy underdogs in all four remaining games, with just a 0.4% chance to win this game, per the metric.
- at Ohio State: 0.4%
- vs. Penn State: 5.7%
- at Michigan State: 22.6%
- at Indiana: 3.3%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 99.6% chance of beating Purdue at home, which translates to a spread of about 30 points, the biggest we’ve assigned to a Power-conference game this season.
The Buckeyes still control their own destiny and can win out to make the Big Ten Championship Game, with the matchup against Indiana essentially being a play-in game.
- vs. Purdue: 99.6%
- at Northwestern: 95.2%
- vs. Indiana: 66.9%
- vs. Michigan: 89.8%
Prediction for Purdue vs. Ohio State
Purdue hasn’t just been the worst team in the Power Four this season—they’ve also drawn the toughest closing schedule in the country. Three of their last four games are against teams with zero or one loss, starting with the Buckeyes in Columbus.
Let’s be real: there’s no realistic path to a Boilermaker victory here. If Purdue somehow pulls off the biggest in-conference upset in history, I’ll gladly eat my words.
Instead, let’s turn our attention to the spread and total.
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Betting on a game with a spread this wide is always tricky. Late-game dynamics can swing things either way, from favorites piling it on to underdogs rallying once backups take the field with a 40-point lead.
That said, I like Ohio State to cover and hit the over—and here’s why.
The Buckeyes have every reason to make a statement for the College Football Playoff Committee, especially with a potential trap game against Indiana looming. They’ll come out strong early, but the real question is whether they keep the intensity through the second half.
Ohio State’s staff deserves credit for persuading several draft-eligible upperclassmen to return, creating a depth chart stacked with serious talent. Even when they rotate in reserves, those backups are better than most Big Ten starters.
Against Purdue? That depth advantage is monumental. Even if Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka step out early, guys like Julian Sayin and Brandon Inniss are more than capable of keeping the scoreboard moving.
I’m typically cautious about betting on big spreads, but if you’re going to play this one, take Ohio State and the over.
Prediction: Ohio State 51, Purdue 9
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