While the value isn’t as high as it was immediately after the 2023 regular season college football win totals release, there is still plenty of value to be had. As such, today we examine six SEC win totals, three teams to fade, and three teams to buy.
Predicting the SEC Win Totals
As of the time of publication, these are the current FanDuel Odds for each team in the SEC’s win totals in 2023:
Georgia Bulldogs — 11.5 (over +116)
Alabama Crimson Tide — 10.5 (over +148)
LSU Tigers — 9.5 (over -115)
Tennessee Volunteers — 9.5 (over +146)
Texas A&M Aggies — 7.5 (over -176)
Ole Miss Rebels — 7.5 (over -124)
South Carolina Gamecocks — 6.5 (over +118)
Kentucky Wildcats — 6.5 (over -162)
Auburn Tigers — 6.5 (over -142)
Arkansas Razorbacks — 6.5 (over -122)
Mississippi State Bulldogs — 6.5 (over +100)
Missouri Tigers — 6.5 (over +104)
Florida Gators — 5.5 (over -134)
Vanderbilt Commodores — 3.5 (over -170)
Three Overs to Take
When looking at SEC win totals, we broke down a team’s schedule into two categories: conference and non-conference. To hit the over, we need a team to win a game or two the oddmakers do not expect them to win or win several of their “toss-up” games. Here, in the over category, we looked for teams that either I’m higher on than others or that play teams I’m lower on than others.
Alabama, over 10.5 +150 (DraftKings)
First, I’m intrigued any time I see that Alabama is expected to lose twice. This line is simply because people aren’t sold on the Crimson Tide’s quarterback situation. Heck, maybe I’m not either. However, that’s not reason enough to expect the Crimson Tide to win twice, especially with the way the schedule shakes out.
The Crimson Tide play some tough teams but get their three best opponents and five of their best six (per Bill Connelly’s SP+) at home. Betting the under here essentially locks you in to hoping the Tide lose twice at home, and they’ll be favored in all 12 games.
The under here counts on promising but unproven coaches and quarterbacks at Texas and LSU to upset Alabama in Bryant-Denny.
I’ll trust Saban here and take the over at plus money.
South Carolina, over 6.5 +118 (FanDuel)
Let’s do a quick Power Ranking of SEC quarterbacks.
Top 4: Will Rogers, Devin Leary, Jayden Daniels, KJ Jefferson
Next Up: Spencer Rattler
If Rattler plays like he did over last season’s final three games, he’s worthy of moving into that top tier. The SEC is short on high-level quarterback play, so I like a lot of the teams that have proven signal-callers.
As is often the case with teams in the middle of the SEC, there are a ton of toss-ups here. Early returns on the new Dowell Loggains uptempo offense have been excellent, and the defense is actually deeper than last season.
The Gamecocks struggled to stop the run last season but should be improved in that area this year, and the secondary is young but talented. Expect a continued rise from Shane Beamer’s program in the coming years, starting with another strong year in 2023.
Arkansas over 6.5 -122 (FanDuel)
DraftKings has pushed this to seven for the team with the easiest non-conference slate in the conference (maybe in all of Power Five). The Razorbacks will be favored by multiple touchdowns in at least three of their four non-conference games, with the fourth against a weaker BYU team. So, going 3-5 in the SEC likely gets you home here.
Arkansas draws two teams from the East that I’m fading this year (more on that in a minute), getting Auburn and Mississippi State at home. KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders form one of the best quarterback-running back tandems in the country, and the Razorbacks excelled in the transfer portal this year. Take the over here.
Three Unders
For the SEC win total unders, we looked at teams with question marks. Things can get fixed, but a lot has to go right for these teams to exceed expectations. Don’t expect these three teams to hit their stride anytime soon.
Florida, under 5.5 +110 (FanDuel)
In Billy Napier’s first year with the Gators, despite having the No. 4 overall draft pick Anthony Richardson, Florida limped to a 6-7 record with three straight losses to end the season.
This season, the returns at the quarterback position have been… less than stellar. Other than backup receiver Andy Jean comparing former Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz to Joe Burrow, there hasn’t been much good news about the Gators’ quarterback situation. Mertz hasn’t conclusively won the job over Jack Miller III, and Napier even hinted he might be in the market for a graduate transfer at the position over the summer.
Quarterback aside, there are rumors of some grumbling within the program. The Gators end the season with four of their last six games away from Ben Griffin Stadium, getting Arkansas and Florida State at home in that stretch.
If the Gators are 3-3 at the turn (in a stretch that includes games against Utah, Tennessee, and at Kentucky), finding three wins on the back end of the schedule may prove to be tough, especially if the offense isn’t inspiring much confidence.
Missouri, under 6.5 -128 (FanDuel)
This high number is a result of the schedule rather than the team. Missouri begins with four consecutive non-conference games before facing Vanderbilt and then entering the challenging SEC schedule.
The Tigers struggled on offense last season but relied on a talented defense to achieve a 6-6 regular season record. Although they bring back eight defensive starters, depth is a concern, and they’ll need to find a replacement for All-SEC edge rusher Trajan Jeffcoat.
Unless they quickly address their offensive issues, Missouri is likely to decline as the season progresses.
Ole Miss, under 7.5 +102 (FanDuel)
Lane Kiffin found success with Matt Corral two years ago, but defenses are adapting, and linebackers are improving in coverage, which reduces the advantage of Ole Miss’s up-tempo offense.
The performance of the quarterbacks has been mediocre at best, and it will be challenging for Quinshon Judkins to replicate his sensational freshman season at running back.
The non-conference schedule is already difficult, and even if the Rebels emerge unscathed, achieving a 4-4 record in conference play won’t be easy. The outcome may come down to the Egg Bowl, but personally, you’d be better to set the line at 6.5, which offers value on FanDuel more than anywhere else.
