The 2024 college football season is almost upon us, and with the release of the AP Top 25, the excitement has reached new heights. This year, however, there’s an added layer of anticipation as the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams, promising a December showdown like never before.
Using the preseason AP rankings as a guide, here’s how the CFP picture could look in 2024. Spoiler alert: the SEC and Big Ten lead the way with four teams each in the dance.
College Football Playoff Bracket Using the Preseason AP Top 25
The preseason AP Top 25 is as follows:
- 1) Georgia
- 2) Ohio State
- 3) Oregon
- 4) Texas
- 5) Alabama
- 6) Ole Miss
- 7) Notre Dame
- 8) Penn State
- 9) Michigan
- 10) Florida State
- 11) Missouri
- 12) Utah
- 13) LSU
- 14) Clemson
- 15) Tennessee
- 16) Oklahoma
- 17) Oklahoma State
- 18) Kansas State
- 19) Miami (FL)
- 20) Texas A&M
- 21) Arizona
- 22) Kansas
- 23) USC
- 24) NC State
- 25) Iowa
Louisville (111), Virginia Tech (77), Boise State (47), SMU (33), Iowa State (33), Liberty (32), Washington (23), West Virginia (17), Memphis (16), Nebraska (16), Wisconsin (15), UTSA (6), Tulane (5), App State (4), Kentucky (3), Auburn (2), and Colorado (1) also received votes.
The new-look CFP bracket includes the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked programs. There is no limit on the number of participants from a single conference, and the top four teams will receive a first-round bye to the quarterfinals.
So, here’s how the College Football Playoff would fall based on the AP’s poll. Note:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Oregon
- No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Texas
- No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Alabama
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole Miss
- Boise State-Oregon winner at No. 4 Utah
- Michigan-Texas winner at No. 3 Florida State
- Penn State-Alabama winner at No. 2 Ohio State
- Notre Dame-Ole Miss winner at No. 1 Georgia
Although Boise State didn’t make the Top 25, it received the most votes among the Group of Five programs and thus a spot in the postseason. Boise State and Oregon have faced off three times (2008, 2009, and 2017), with the Broncos leaving victorious each time, so this matchup could be a lot more entertaining than a casual fan would suspect.
The other three first-round contests are just as — if not more — exciting on paper.
If Michigan finds stability under center, they’ll give Texas a run for its money, but Quinn Ewers, Isaiah Bond, and Amari Niblack are too much to handle. Penn State hopes that this is the year they make a run at the natty, but Kalen DeBeor will have Jalen Milroe vying for a Heisman Trophy this season, and it’s difficult to envision Drew Allar and Co. keeping up.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has the star power to hold off a talented Notre Dame team going through major changes this offseason (new QB-OC duo). That leaves us with a strong Elite Eight after all the highest-ranked teams won their first-round matchups. Will that happen again?
- No. 5 Oregon at No. 4 Utah
- No. 6 Texas at No. 3 Florida State
- No. 7 Alabama at No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 1 Georgia
While Utah is the higher-ranked squad here, Oregon would be the favorite. Year 7 of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe should be electric, but the Utes’ road ends at the hands of their former Pac-12 opponent.
Ewers vs. DJ Uiagalelei — enough said. DJU hasn’t shown the ability to go drive for drive with a high-octane offense such as Texas’. Last season, he surpassed 250 passing yards just three times and never threw for more than 285.
The lower-seeded teams won the first two Elite Eight bouts, but the trend ends there. Ohio State is simply too well-tuned of a team for DeBeor and Co. to knock out during a major transition year. The same goes for Georgia and Ole Miss, although Lane Kiffin and Jaxson Dart hope to make it more interesting than their 52-17 defeat last year.
- No. 5 Oregon at No. 1 Georgia
- No. 6 Texas at No. 2 Ohio State
The 2022 matchup between Oregon and Georgia was just the second time the two programs have ever met. Dan Lanning wishes they hadn’t, as his former employer handed him an embarrassing 49-3 loss. While the scoreboard would likely be tighter, the result would likely be the same.
Unfortunately, the Longhorns’ luck runs out as they face the vaunted Buckeyes. Texas’ running back depth appears to be an issue heading into the year, with projected starter CJ Baxter and true freshman Christian Clark suffering major injuries. Without a strong ground attack to lean on, Ewers could force passes, which is not what you want to do against Ohio State.
- No. 2 Ohio State at No. 1 Georgia
Despite conference realignment, NIL, the transfer portal, and the CFP expansion, the 2024-25 National Championship comes down to the two heavyweight favorites. We haven’t had a nail-biting title match since No. 4 Alabama outlasted No. 3 Georgia 26-23 in overtime in 2018, but this contest would have the potential to be even better.
Ohio State and Georgia have only played twice, but the last time they did, we were treated to an electric Peach Bowl that culminated in a 42-41 Bulldogs victory — and a similar outcome occurs here.
KEEP READING: 2024 All-American College Football Preseason Team and Individual Honors
After watching rival Michigan take home the trophy last season, it’s natty or bust for Ryan Day. However, Will Howard isn’t Carson Beck, and despite arguably having more big names on the roster, Georgia has the depth.
Is this exactly how the playoff will play out? Of course not, but if there’s one thing to take away, it’s this: 12 teams are better than four, and the more teams you have, the more unpredictable the results.
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