On paper, the GameAbove Sports Bowl appears to be one of the more uneven matchups. However, football isn’t played on paper, and the Toledo Rockets are aiming for their second Power Four victory in an otherwise underwhelming season as they take on the Pittsburgh Panthers.
The Panthers’ health will play a pivotal role in what promises to be an intriguing showdown. Dive into our Pittsburgh vs. Toledo prediction to see which side we’re backing.
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo GameAbove Sports Bowl Betting Preview
All Pittsburgh vs. Toledo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -3.5 - Spread
Pittsburgh -6.5 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -258, Toledo +210 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Thursday, Dec. 26, 2 p.m. ET - Location
Ford Field | Detroit - How To Watch
ESPN
Unlike many other bowl games, the line movement for the Sports Bowl seems to be simply a generic betting movement. Bettors love underdogs this time of year, so the line drop from nine points to seven points is likely natural movement rather than movement influenced by players entering the transfer portal.
There is an interesting health storyline here. Both Pittsburgh starting quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid missed the regular season finale. While Reid should be back, we weren’t so sure about Holstein’s status. Holstein was ruled out just hours before the game and the dropoff is huge between Holstein and David Lynch on the totem pole.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Panthers, making them 3.5-point favorites. That translates to a winning probability of 58.9%.
That, obviously, could change if there’s an update to Holstein’s status.
- vs. Toledo: 58.9%
Toledo’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Rockets are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 41.1%. Toledo is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal and opt-outs but is still likely the less talented team.
- vs. Pittsburgh: 41.1%
Prediction for Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
This game originally hinged on Holstein’s health. Without him, the offense isn’t just diminished—it’s unrecognizable, even with a capable backup like Yarnell under center. If Yarnell can’t go, the presumed drop-off to Lynch is steep.
Reid is reportedly ready to play, but there’s a chance he’s not at full strength.
So, while opt-outs aren’t a major factor here, injuries are shaping this matchup, making it a tough one to predict—especially with two inconsistent teams.
Both Toledo and Pittsburgh have experienced wild swings this season.
The Panthers began 7-0 but then lost five straight, averaging just 19.2 points per game during that stretch. Toledo, on the other hand, has been all over the map—blowing out Mississippi State and handling Miami (OH) with ease, but also losing to Akron and looking flat against Bowling Green and Buffalo.
One thing is clear: Toledo can’t run the ball. They finished the season ranked 108th in rushing offense and didn’t have a single player reach 80 rushing yards in regulation all year.
Pittsburgh, in contrast, was strong on the ground early but faded late. The deciding factor will likely be whether the Panthers can establish their run game against Toledo’s solid—though still Group of Five—rush defense.
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In the end, I believe Pittsburgh has the depth and talent to wear down Toledo’s defensive front. But it won’t be easy, and it won’t happen right away. Toledo’s passing game is explosive enough to hit a few big plays and keep them in contention. That said, casual bettors have a point here.
Seven points is a lot to give a team that hasn’t won a game since before Halloween.
I still see Pittsburgh pulling out the win, but I’m not confident in them covering the spread. Take Toledo to cover in what should be a great game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Toledo 23
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