As college football continues to evolve, the structure of the College Football Playoff (CFP) remains a hot-button issue. While the 12-team playoff debuts in 2024, the conversation has already shifted to the next possible expansion, a 16-team bracket.
But according to ESPN insider Pete Thamel, fans shouldn’t expect the CFP to grow any larger beyond that anytime soon.
Pete Thamel Explains Why a 16-Team College Football Playoff Isn’t Likely
Appearing on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Friday, Thamel addressed the growing buzz around CFP expansion, following a Yahoo Sports report from Ross Dellenger suggesting momentum for a 16-team playoff. That report cited growing support from the Big Ten and SEC after a key in-person meeting of conference commissioners in New York.
While Thamel confirmed there’s “a high probability” the playoff eventually grows to 16 teams, he made it clear that’s likely the ceiling, at least for now.
“If we get to 16 here, which I would say is a high probability at this point, I have a hard time seeing it jump up from there,” Thamel explained. “I would think 16, you’d have to stay static there for a relatively short period of time.”
Why the hesitation to go beyond 16? Thamel pointed to several challenges, including scheduling, television contracts, and equity among conferences. A major sticking point involves automatic qualifiers.
Under the proposed 16-team format, the SEC and Big Ten could each receive four automatic bids, double what the Big 12 and ACC would likely get. This imbalance has already sparked concern across college football leadership.
Thamel noted that the 2026 season, when the current ESPN CFP deal ends, is a potential launching point for the 16-team structure. While there is an expected six-year playoff window from 2026 to 2031, nothing is finalized yet.
“This is the final season we’re going to be at 12. They kind of soft agreed to go to 14 for the next iteration… but there’s been recent momentum for the 14-team playoff to go to 16,” Thamel added.
Commissioners like Tony Petitti (Big Ten) and Greg Sankey (SEC) are understandably in favor of the expansion, especially with the power their conferences currently wield. However, Thamel emphasized that despite their growing influence, a move to a 16-team playoff needs broader consensus.
KEEP READING: Pete Thamel Weighs In: Can Bryce Underwood and Keelon Russell Start As Freshmen for Michigan and Alabama?
Still, it’s clear the appetite for “more” remains strong in college football. After the success of the 12-team model, which debuted with campus-hosted games and top-seed byes, the shift to 16 feels inevitable.
But beyond 16? That’s where Thamel draws the line.
“There’s no format decision yet,” one source told Thamel. “It seems like 16 may be the preferred number.”
As expansion talks continue behind closed doors, Thamel’s insight serves as a grounded reminder: While the playoff may grow again, don’t expect it to become a free-for-all anytime soon.
College Sports Network has you covered with the latest news, analysis, insights, and trending stories in college football, men’s college basketball, women’s college basketball, and college baseball!
