The introduction of a 12-team College Football Playoff has changed the game for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Long overshadowed by powerhouses like Ohio State and Michigan, the expanded format opens new doors for this consistently strong program.
With a favorable schedule, Penn State seems primed for a playoff push—unless the Wisconsin Badgers, eager to make a statement, have something to say about it.
Will the Badgers pull off the upset? Let’s dive into our prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -11.5 - Spread
Penn State -6.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -238, Wisconsin +195 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wisc. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, partly cloudy, seven mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
The early spread is Penn State -6.5, as Vegas seems to view this as a trap game. The public hasn’t jumped on this at all, as the line is unchanged. With a total of 47.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 27-21 in favor of Penn State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Penn State’s Winning Probability
The Nittany Lions have an 80.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 11.5 points. The Nittany Lions have one key game remaining, a true toss-up against Ohio State with major Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications.
- at Wisconsin: 80.6%
- vs. Ohio State: 52.5%
- vs. Washington: 92.9%
- at Purdue: 95.7%
- at Minnesota: 85.9%
- vs. Maryland: 94.5%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Wisconsin in this one, as the metric has them as 11.5-point underdogs. The Badgers have a 19.4% chance to win the game. The Badgers will be underdogs in all but one of their remaining games.
- vs. Penn State: 19.4%
- at Iowa: 46.2%
- vs. Oregon: 14.1%
- at Nebraska: 46.2%
- vs. Minnesota: 63.6%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin
This Vegas line is both puzzling and amusing for a seasoned college football bettor like me.
Run any simulation or metric, and Penn State consistently rates about 10-15 points better than Wisconsin, even on the road. But betting on the Nittany Lions is never straightforward—we’ve seen this story play out before. Just as Penn State looks poised for a College Football Playoff breakthrough, a slip-up disrupts their momentum.
This matchup also feels like a classic look-ahead spot. With Ohio State coming to Happy Valley next Saturday, a win here could all but secure Penn State’s spot in the Big Ten Championship (and possibly the Playoff).
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
After Ohio State, Penn State’s schedule eases up, making these next two weeks critical. Vegas is predicting a close, low-scoring battle, with the Badgers likely to focus on clock control and limiting possessions.
Strangely, I trust Drew Allar in this one. The interceptions against USC felt uncharacteristic, and I expect a clean, bounce-back showing. Penn State should find success on the ground, while Wisconsin’s defense might struggle to contain tight end Tyler Warren.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions are vulnerable to big passing plays, but Wisconsin lacks the offensive firepower to exploit that.
I’m cautiously backing the Nittany Lions here, though I wouldn’t be shocked by the usual big-game letdown.
My pick: Penn State and the points, with the total creeping over.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 21
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.