The Penn State Nittany Lions, sitting comfortably at 8-1, head to West Lafayette this Saturday to take on the 1-8 Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. On paper, it’s a mismatch, but Purdue’s program has earned its nickname—the “Spoilermakers”—with a legacy of shocking college football giants, boasting 17 wins over top-five teams.
Saturday offers another chance for Purdue to shake up the College Football Playoff picture and salvage a disappointing season with a statement victory. Our Penn State vs. Purdue prediction dives into the possibility of the Boilermakers pulling off a monumental upset.
Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Purdue odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -21.5 - Spread
Penn State -29.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -1000, Purdue +3000 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ross-Ade Stadium | West Lafayette, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Action is typically lower in games with this large of a spread, which results in fewer line movements.
That is precisely what we’ve seen in this matchup. This four-touchdown line opened at -28.5 and has stayed there for the most part, aside from a brief drop to -28. The total has been just as dormant. It opened at 49.5, briefly touched 51, and settled back down at 50.5, where it currently sits.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s FPM, the Nittany Lions have a 94.3% chance of defeating the Boilermakers on Saturday. If the win probabilities hold, Penn State would finish the season at 11-1 and most likely earn a first-round bye in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
- at Purdue: 94.3%
- at Minnesota: 73.8%
- vs. Maryland: 93.9%
Purdue’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Purdue has a 5.7% chance of defeating Penn State on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Boilermakers would finish at 1-11. That would be the worst finish for Purdue since 2013, when the Boilermakers also finished 1-11.
- vs. Penn State: 5.7%
- at Michigan State: 21.9%
- at Indiana: 3.5%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Purdue
On Saturday, Purdue takes the field at home as four-touchdown underdogs—a daunting spread that underscores the disparity between these teams on paper.
But games aren’t won on paper. Despite a season full of struggles, the Boilermakers carry their own motivations and pride. History has shown us that Purdue has a knack for defying the odds, earning their nickname, the “Spoilermakers,” with upset wins that leave lasting impressions.
For Penn State, the quarterback position—long a source of uncertainty—has found stability this year with Drew Allar. With 2,006 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, Allar’s growth isn’t just reflected in his stats but in his precision. His completion rate has climbed above 70% this season, a significant jump from 60% last year.
As Penn State travels to West Lafayette, there’s a sense they might take Purdue lightly. They’re heavy favorites, but the Boilermakers—led by senior quarterback Hudson Card—are not without fight or potential.
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Purdue’s offensive woes have been a recurring theme this season. Sitting at 1-8, they’ve been shut out twice in their last three games and scored 10 points or fewer in three others. Yet, there’s hope in Card.
Recently returning from injury, he threw for 267 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern—a solid outing despite facing challenges like a tough Ohio State defense, where he managed just 108 yards on 9-of-19 passing.
Though not known for his mobility, Card’s ability to extend plays has been critical behind an offensive line that’s allowed 24 sacks. His scrambling has kept Purdue in the fight, even when the odds felt insurmountable.
While a full-blown upset seems out of reach, I think Purdue has enough grit to keep this one within the spread.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Purdue 6
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