The Penn State Nittany Lions are in the College Football Playoffs, that’s what matters at this point. However, after letting Oregon walk all over them defensively, just how far could the Nittany Lions fall in the final College Football Playoff Rankings?
And who could Penn State now be looking to play in the opening round?
Predicting Penn State’s Placement In College Football Playoff Rankings
Penn State battled it out with Oregon, putting up a valiant effort on offense. However, after allowing a career day to Oregon WR Tez Johnson and the Ducks’ offense, it was too little too late to come away victorious in the Big Ten Championship.
With their postseason fate established, a win in the Big Ten would have secured Penn State a first-round bye in the playoffs. Now, however, they need to worry about where they’ll rank in the final College Football Playoff Rankings, and what their road map looks like now.
In order to do so, we have to look at last week’s playoff rankings to really understand how this could look.
- Oregon (Won Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Texas (loss SEC vs. Georgia)
- Penn State (loss Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Notre Dame
- Georgia (won SEC vs. Texas)
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- SMU (lost ACC vs. Clemson)
- Indiana
- Boise State (won Mountain West)
- Alabama
- Miami-FL
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State (won Big 12 vs. Iowa State)
- Iowa State (lost Big 12 vs. Arizona State)
- Clemson (won ACC vs. SMU)
So, now, the way this will work is the top-four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the first-round byes. That means, Oregon and Georgia are locks for a bye. What isn’t determined but has no bearing on Penn State is how the committee will rank Boise State, Arizona State, and SMU/Clemson.
For the Nittany Lions however, their ranking will come down to a handful of factors. At this point, with how poorly Texas played on offense against Georgia, you can’t just assume the Longhorns stayed ranked above Penn State.
It’s likely that Texas maintains that one-spot lead above the Nittany Lions, so you have to slide them down past Notre Dame and Georgia at this rate.
The fever pitch would be ranking Penn State next to Ohio State. Will the committee punish Penn State for making and playing in the Big Ten Championship Game — something Ohio State, the team that beat Penn State in the regular season, could not accomplish?
The argument is there — Ohio State beat Penn State head-to-head. However, Ohio State’s loss to Michigan is much “worse” than Penn State’s loss to the Buckeyes. If they value the head-to-head meeting more, Penn State could slide below Ohio State.
So, let’s map out what it does to Penn State in all these potential scenarios. At this rate, the Nittany Lions could land with anywhere from the No. 5 to the No. 8 seed with little arguing.
The good thing for the Nittany Lions here is the fact that from five to seven, they’ll host a first-round playoff game no matter what.
Those scenarios, however, have quite a variety of different opponents that could come to Happy Valley.
- If Penn State earns the No. 5 seed, they’d likely play:
- Clemson, at home
- If Penn State earns the No. 6 seed, they’d likely play:
- Alabama, at home
- If Penn State earns the No. 7 seed, they’d likely play:
- Indiana, at home
- If Penn State earns the No. 8 seed, they’d likely play:
- Tennessee, at home
And then, of course, there’s the talk about avoiding conference-vs-conference matchups in the opening round matchups. If that’s the case, the the seven seed may be off limits to avoid the Penn State vs. Indiana matchup.
All of this will be decided by the college football playoff selection committee, but let me be the first to tell you, Penn State fans: In any one of those scenarios above, your Nittany Lions are going to be decent home favorites.
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