The Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks collide at Lucas Oil Stadium with more than just the 2024 Big Ten title on the line—College Football Playoff seeding hangs in the balance.
Who has the edge? Our Penn State vs. Oregon prediction breaks down the latest odds, win probabilities, and projects the winner of this high-stakes Big Ten Championship Game.
Penn State vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -5 - Spread
Oregon -3.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -170, Penn State +142 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
30 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS
The Big Ten Championship Game brings together two teams who don’t share a rich history. You can’t get much further apart geographically than Oregon and Penn State, but college football conference realignment has thrust them together on the biggest stage. There have been just four previous matchups, with Penn State winning the last clash in 1995 and holding a 3-1 lead.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Oregon has been comfortably the best team in college football this year and enters the game as a favorite, according to the oddsmakers and CFN FPM. The Ducks have won as both a favorite and an underdog this year, and while they have a middling spread record, so does Penn State. The Nittany Lions lost and failed to cover in the only other underdog game in 2024.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Penn State is looking to win its fifth Big Ten Championship on Saturday night, its second under James Franklin. However, the CFN FPM makes the Nittany Lions underdogs with a 35.9% chance of winning a championship for the first time since 2016.
- at Oregon: 35.9%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon has the strongest chance of winning its conference title compared to any other team competing for a championship this weekend. The CFN FPM gives the Ducks a healthy 64.1% chance to win the Big Ten in their maiden season.
- vs. Penn State: 64.1%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Oregon
The question remains: Can James Franklin win a big game? Since taking over as head coach at Penn State, Franklin has compiled a dismal 1-11 record against opponents ranked in the top five.
To rewrite that narrative, Franklin will need to lean heavily on one of college football’s most dynamic connections: quarterback Drew Allar and tight end Tyler Warren. Warren has been a force this season, racking up 1,167 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns, making him a threat on every down.
Allar, meanwhile, will have to deliver his best performance yet to overcome a formidable Oregon defense coached by Tosh Lupoi. The Ducks rank ninth nationally in points allowed per game (16.4) but force only 1.2 turnovers per game, offering some room for opportunity. Allar has been careful with the football in 2024, throwing for 2,668 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.
Penn State’s best chance to exploit Oregon lies on the ground. While the Ducks allow just 118.2 rushing yards per game (23rd nationally), they’ve shown vulnerability at times—most notably when Ashton Jeanty shredded them for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
The Nittany Lions’ running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen might not match Jeanty’s production, but they’re plenty capable of making an impact. Singleton has rushed for 733 yards and seven touchdowns, while Allen has added 698 yards and five scores. Together, they could cause problems for Oregon’s defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s offense has been nothing short of electric. Veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been sensational, leading the conference in completion percentage and passing yards. His 3,275 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions are complemented by a loaded receiving corps featuring Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden, and Evan Ferguson—one of the most dangerous groups in the country.
Adding to Oregon’s offensive firepower is running back Jordan James, who has been a wrecking ball this season with 1,166 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. It’s a unit that ranks among the most potent in college football.
Penn State’s defense, which has held opponents to just 14 points per game, will face its toughest challenge yet. To slow down Oregon’s high-octane attack, they’ll need their best performance of the season—and then some.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Penn State 17
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