The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the 2025 college football season looking to go one step further than their semifinal appearance in the playoff. To do so, James Franklin’s side will have to overcome a challenging schedule, which could restrict their views of another 10+ win season.
Penn State Football Win Projections for the 2025 Season
Over 10.5 wins (+120), Under 10.5 wins (-150)
Penn State has won 11+ games in two out of the last three seasons, and DraftKings has responded by setting its regular-season over/under total at 10.5.
However, it is the under that is the current favorite with bettors able to get odds of -150 for the Nittany Lions having under 10.5 wins. Given the demanding Big Ten schedule, this may not be surprising.
For those high on Franklin’s side’s chances in 2025, odds of +120 are available. With QB Drew Allar (who is ranked 19th on CSN’s top 100 players for the 2026 NFL Draft)and RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning, there are big expectations held in State College for another College Football Playoff appearance.
Penn State Football 2025 Schedule
- Aug. 30 – vs Nevada Wolfpack
- Sept. 6 – vs Florida International Panthers
- Sept.13 – vs Villanova Wildcats
- Sept. 27 – vs Oregon Ducks
- Oct. 4 – at UCLA Bruins
- Oct. 11 – vs Northwestern Wildcats
- Oct. 18 – at Iowa Hawkeyes
- Nov. 1 – at Ohio State Buckeyes
- Nov. 8 – vs Indiana Hoosiers
- Nov. 15 – at Michigan State
- Nov. 22 – vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Nov. 29 – at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Since conference realignment, the Big Ten schedule has been brutal. However, Penn State may have avoided many tough matchups in 2025. The Nittany Lions are likely to be favorites in 10 of their 12 games, but their fate and potential playoff seeding will depend on two crucial matchups.
In 2024, Penn State lost only one regular-season game to the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The Oregon Ducks also defeated them in the Big Ten Championship Game. With both of these teams on their 2025 regular-season schedule, repeating those losses could jeopardize the over hitting.
The 2024 College Football Playoff semifinalists open their 2025 season with four straight home games, with the Ducks heading to Beaver Stadium on Sept. 27. It is a tricky fixture to navigate. However, the Nittany Lions rank sixth in CSN’s early college football top 25 power rankings and will be coming off a bye week. Plus, the game will likely be a White Out.
Penn State hasn’t lost a White Out game since its 27-26 loss to Ohio State in 2018, and Franklin is 8-2 in those contests. On the other hand, the long-tenured head coach is 6-6 coming off byes.
Another significant matchup is scheduled for Nov. 1, when the Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to face Ohio State, also following a bye week. Penn State has lost eight consecutive games against the Buckeyes, with its last victory dating back to 2016. The last time they won in The Shoe was in 2011.
A road trip to the Iowa Hawkeyes is also always a challenging fixture, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers are also expected to improve under Matt Rhule. While their schedule could have been tougher, it still features potential pitfalls.
With Allar, Singleton, and Allen returning on offense, anything less than 10 regular-season wins will be viewed as a disappointment. However, the Nittany Lions will need new pass catchers to emerge after adding several transfer portal additions, including former Syracuse Orange WR Trebor Pena, if they hope to achieve 10 wins or more in 2025.
KEEP READING: College Football Transfer Portal Recap — Winners After Week 2
Given prior performance, a loss to Ohio State seems likely, and Franklin’s side will likely be underdogs at home to Oregon. Moreover, matchups against the Hawkeyes, Cornhuskers, Indiana Hoosiers, and Michigan State Spartans all present potential banana skins.
Penn State Football 2025 Win Projection: 10
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