The all-time series might be deadlocked at 3-3, but the Oregon Ducks have dominated the recent history, taking each of the last three matchups against the Wisconsin Badgers. If their Week 12 showdown mirrors those past thrillers—averaging a score of 35-31—we’re in for a treat.
Our Oregon vs. Wisconsin prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.
Oregon vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -15.5 - Spread
Oregon -14 - Moneyline
Oregon -550, Wisconsin +410 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wis. - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
Fading Wisconsin has been the play for most of the year, with the Badgers going 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. However, they have been a part of solid scoring outputs, with the over hitting in seven of their past five contests.
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The Ducks have been the exact opposite. Not only are they 4-1 ATS in their last five, but the under has cashed in five of their last seven, with the offense doing enough to win and the defense locking down the opposition.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon is one of just four FBS teams that remain undefeated entering Week 12, and the program should have no issue winning out. The FPM gives the Ducks a win probability over 88% in each of their final two bouts this year.
- at Wisconsin: 88.1%
- vs. Washington: 94.4%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
The Badgers are one win away from bowl eligibility, and although they’re a near lock to miss out this week, they’ll have two more chances to secure a dub. Wisconsin finishes the season with a road trip to the Nebraska Cornhuskers and a home defense against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
- vs. Oregon: 11.9%
- at Nebraska: 44.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 50.8%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin comes into this matchup fresh off a bye, but even the extra rest won’t be enough to stop the Ducks’ momentum. QB Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in six consecutive games, and against an Oregon defense with nine picks on the season, that streak is poised to stretch to seven.
The Badgers have struggled mightily in recent matchups, getting outscored 70-23 by Penn State and Iowa. Facing the No. 1 team in the nation? It’s a recipe for more of the same.
Oregon’s second-half defense has been lights-out, allowing just 6.2 points per game over their last five contests. They’ve shut out Purdue, held Ohio State to 10, and limited Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland to six, seven, and eight points, respectively.
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Offensively, Oregon has been a juggernaut, scoring 31+ points in all but one game this season (a 24-point effort in a sluggish Week 1 against Idaho). QB Dillon Gabriel is rewriting the record books, recently breaking the all-time record for touchdowns responsible for (180). He now sits 1,504 yards shy of the career passing yards record.
To reach that milestone, Gabriel will need to average 300+ yards per game or keep his current pace of 284.8 through the national championship. Against Wisconsin’s run defense—ranked 97th in defensive success rate—expect Oregon to lean on Gabriel’s arm early and often.
The total looks well-placed, but I’m leaning toward the under. As for the spread? Oregon to win and cover feels like the right play—provided the line stays at 14.5 or lower.
Prediction: Oregon 37, Wisconsin 13
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