The Boise State Broncos have officially secured their spot in the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game, but their trip to Laramie, Wyo., was anything but smooth. Star running back Ashton Jeanty went down with an injury, offering a glimpse of how the Broncos might falter without him.
So, who takes the win? Our Oregon State vs. Boise State prediction dives into the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both programs as they wrap up the 2024 college football season.
Oregon State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All Oregon State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -11 - Spread
Boise State -17.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -850, Oregon State +575 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
28 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday marks just the 11th all-time matchup between the Broncos and Beavers, although they’ll become a little more familiar with each other when Boise State joins Oregon State in the Pac-12 from the 2026 college football season. Although the road team won the last time they met (2022) to take a 6-4 overall lead, the Broncos are a substantial favorite on Friday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Boise State is yet to lose a game as a favorite this season, with their only defeat coming as a significant underdog against the Oregon Ducks. While they’ve failed to cover in five games as a double-digit spread favorite, Spencer Danielson’s team is 3-1 ATS on “the Blue,” and will be looking to add style points to their resume as the final College Football Playoff rankings draw near.
Oregon State’s Winning Probability
Winning Saturday has to feel satisfying for a team that battled injuries all season after already lacking depth due to a transfer portal exodus. Now, they’ll look to spoil Boise State’s College Football Playoff hopes. The Beavers will have a win probability of 19.8%, per CFN’s FPM. If they can get the win, they’ll be bowl-eligible.
- at Boise State: 19.8%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Boise State is almost at home plate. The Broncos will make the College Football Playoff if they win their next two, and that starts with Oregon State, a team they have an 80.2% chance to beat, per our metric.
- vs. Oregon State: 80.2%
Prediction for Oregon State vs. Boise State
I’m willing to give Wyoming a pass for just about anything that happens there, but Boise State’s second-half performance—mostly played without Jeanty—definitely raises some concerns. Without their superstar running back, the Broncos couldn’t find any rhythm offensively.
Jeanty eventually returned and did what only he can: put on a show worthy of Heisman buzz. But the fact that he’s essentially the entire Boise State offense doesn’t inspire confidence for the long haul.
What about Friday, though? For this matchup, Jeanty might be all they need.
Oregon State’s run defense has been, to put it kindly, lackluster. They’ve faced few run-heavy offenses but are still surrendering 5.3 yards per carry, ranking 117th nationally. Teams like Air Force have already exposed those weaknesses this season.
As long as Jeanty is healthy, expect Boise State to lean on him heavily—30-plus touches seem inevitable for the Heisman hopeful.
The bigger factor, though, is Oregon State’s offensive line. It’s a patched-up unit that likely won’t hold up against Boise State’s front. The Beavers typically try to mitigate this by getting the ball out quickly, but the Broncos’ linebackers are more than capable of making open-field tackles and stifling their offense.
I’m leaning toward the under here, but Jeanty has the explosiveness to rip off a couple of long ones that could push the total over. Either way, the matchups favor Boise State. On a short week, coming off an emotional win, Oregon State looks ripe for the picking.
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The line might look a little odd, but I’m rolling with the Broncos—and Jeanty—to run wild.
Broncos dominate.
Prediction: Boise State 37, Oregon State 15
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