Two months back, the Week 10 showdown between the Oregon Ducks and Michigan Wolverines was billed as a premier matchup in light of the recent conference reshuffle.
As the season unfolded, however, one team has struggled to live up to the preseason buzz. Nevertheless, the Big House is set for a high-stakes battle. Will the Wolverines be the ones to shatter the No. 1 team’s perfect record? Here’s the rundown for this Oregon vs. Michigan prediction.
Oregon vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -12 - Spread
Oregon -14.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -700, Michigan +500 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, sunny, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Just the second-biggest Big Ten matchup of the afternoon, the Ducks go on the road in a hostile environment to play a Michigan team that has certainly changed since last year’s CFP National Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread being -15 in Oregon’s favor is intriguing, as it’s hovering around that two-touchdown mark. The Ducks are on a roll, covering three straight games and two of three road games in 2024. With a total of 45 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 30-15 in favor of the Ducks.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
After making easy work of Illinois on Saturday, Oregon is well on its way to an undefeated season. According to CFN’s FPM, the Ducks have a win probability of over 81% in each remaining game, including an 81.6% chance to beat Michigan, giving them a 63% chance to go undefeated.
- vs. Maryland: 98.0%
- at Wisconsin: 83.5%
- vs. Washington: 94.7%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan has an 18.4% chance of overcoming the Ducks at home. It’s one of three games in which the Wolverines will be huge underdogs, with a winning probability of less than 25%. They need one more win for a bowl game, but there’s just one obvious opportunity left to get to six wins.
- at Indiana: 21.8%
- vs. Northwestern: 88.1%
- at Ohio State: 12.6%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan
Michigan’s 24-17 victory over archrival Michigan State came with its own set of challenges. A post-game scuffle overshadowed the win and could result in player suspensions.
The road only gets tougher for the 5-3 Wolverines. Three of their next four opponents have just one combined loss.
Up first: No. 1 Oregon, riding high and covering the spread in three consecutive games, two of which were against ranked opponents.
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For Michigan, the story remains the same. Their offense is one-dimensional, sitting 129th nationally in yards per pass attempt.
Unlike some teams, Michigan can’t rely on a dominant ground game either—they rank 47th in yards per rush, a stat that doesn’t fare well against Oregon’s tough defense.
Oregon holds the advantage on paper, but they’ll still have to bring their A-game in Ann Arbor.
The Ducks have looked sharp lately, especially as Dillon Gabriel and the passing game regain their spark. Michigan’s offense may struggle to sustain drives, risking their defense wearing down over time.
We knew Michigan faced tests this season, but few anticipated challenges this steep. If Oregon plays to their potential, it could be a long day for the Wolverines. My question remains: can Michigan score enough to push the total over?
I’m leaning toward no. Ducks in control.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Michigan 9
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