After their Week 5 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats, are the Ole Miss Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes in jeopardy? The Rebels’ destiny may still be within their control, but their margin for error from this point onward has slimmed.
Are Ole Miss’ College Football Playoff Hopes Dashed After Kentucky Loss?
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 college football season, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels had an average margin of victory of 49.5 points.In Week 5 against a Kentucky Wildcats squad whose offense had been borderline inept for the first four weeks, the Rebels lost 20-17.
Ole Miss’ high-flying passing attack, anchored by quarterback Jaxson Dart and wide receiver Tre Harris, struggled to put up points when it mattered against Kentucky, and as a result, Ole Miss is now 0-1 to start SEC play in 2024.
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The Wildcats were 0-2 in SEC play coming into this matchup, with losses against South Carolina and Georgia on their record. Not only is the win a surprising feat for Kentucky, but it also stalls the swift rise that Ole Miss experienced to start the year.
Looking ahead, are the Rebels still in the mix for the 12-team CFB Playoff field? Playing in the SEC helps their chances, as they look to bolster their resume, and as the outline below shows, they’ll have the opportunity to score a few notable head-to-head wins, too.
Ole Miss’ Remaining 2024 Schedule and Projections
- Week 6 at South Carolina
- Spread: -12 | Projection: Win (81.6%)
- Week 7 at LSU Tigers
- Spread: -0.5 | Projection: Win (50.4%)
- Week 9 vs. Oklahoma
- Spread: -15 | Projection: Win (87.4%)
- Week 10 at Arkansas Razorbacks
- Spread: -13.5 | Projection: Win (83.5%)
- Week 11 vs. Georgia Bulldogs
- Spread: -1.5 | Projection: Win (51.8%)
- Week 13 at Florida Gators
- Spread: -15.5 | Projection: Win (87.8%)
- Week 14 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Spread: -26.5 | Projection: Win (96.8%)
Ole Miss Rebels Projected Record: 11-1
Even with the loss to Kentucky, the Ole Miss Rebels are still a relatively safe bet to make the CFB Playoffs — but that outcome hinges on them taking care of business for the rest of the season.
We already know the offense is potent with Dart, Harris, and others — but Kentucky’s defense was able to pump the breaks on the Ole Miss hype train.
Not all teams will have the talent Kentucky has on defense, with contributors like Deone Walker, Maxwell Hairston, Zion Childress, Octavious Oxendine, and Jamon Dumas-Johnson. But this also isn’t the last tough test Ole Miss will face.
The biggest risks to Ole Miss’ CFB Playoff bid are LSU in Week 7 and Georgia in Week 11. Currently, Ole Miss is still projected to win both games, but with just over a 50% win probability for both.
Georgia, in particular, should be a difficult squad to face. Carson Beck is one of the nation’s best QBs on offense, and the defense has a plethora of playmakers, among them Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker, and Malaki Starks.
LSU isn’t as potent as Georgia on the defensive side of the ball, but Garrett Nussmeier, Kyren Lacy, and others have helped fuel the team’s favorable offensive production in 2024.
A loss against either LSU or Georgia could place Ole Miss even closer to the CFB Playoff fringe, and they also play South Carolina in Week 6 — the team that has a 31-6 head-to-head win against Kentucky, the team that just beat Ole Miss.
Ole Miss can most likely weather one more loss and still stay in the CFB Playoff conversation as a potential at-large team. But Kiffin is already one strike down in the order.
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