What do you get when you cross pure hatred with 100 yards of a football field? The Egg Bowl rivalry between the Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs is one the weirdest, most hate-filled games on the college football calendar, providing passion and drama in equal measures, regardless of when it’s played.
Who comes out on top? Our Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction breaks it all down—from the latest Egg Bowl betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they close the book on the 2024 college football season.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -24 - Spread
Ole Miss -25 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -3200, Mississippi State +1400 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Things have certainly changed in the last week for Ole Miss. The Rebels have gone from an outside shot at winning the SEC championship to being on the outside looking in of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Now, an Egg Bowl win could be as good as it gets for Lane Kiffin’s squad. On the other hand, Mississippi State is looking for its first SEC win of the season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Ole Miss takes a 65-47-6 advantage into the 119th edition and is a considerable favorite to extend that lead on Friday. The Rebels have dropped three when favored ahead of the game this season, but that shouldn’t be the case in the Egg Bowl. While they should win, covering the spread might be a tougher assignment.
Although they’ve covered by an average of 5.3 points this year, they’ve gone 3-4 ATS in the last seven. Furthermore, the Rebels’ average margin of victory comes just under the current 26-point spread being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook. If the line drops to Ole Miss -24, it might be worth backing the Rebels. Otherwise, the Bulldogs to cover (average defeat of 7.9 points) is a solid bet.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Despite the loss to drop to 8-3, Ole Miss is still an overwhelming favorite to win the Egg Bowl, with a 95.7% chance to win the game, per CFN’s FPM. Even with a win, it’s highly unlikely the Rebels can make the College Football Playoff, even with a win.
- at Mississippi State: 95.7%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Not much has gone right for Mississippi State this season, and the Bulldogs go into the Egg Bowl with nothing more to play for than pride, a chance to beat their rivals, and The Golden Egg. Without some of the craziness that accompanies the Egg Bowl, the Bulldogs don’t have much of a chance to win, just 4.3%, per our metric.
- vs. Ole Miss: 4.3%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Traditionally played on Thanksgiving night, the Egg Bowl has shifted to Black Friday, aiming for a prime television slot. The upside? You’ll have a little extra time to recover from your turkey coma before diving into one of the quirkiest and most entertaining rivalries in college football.
It’s not just that Ole Miss and Mississippi State despise each other—it’s that the Egg Bowl is downright bizarre. Over the past decade alone, this game has delivered a series of wild, unpredictable moments that feel unique to this rivalry. If this year’s clash somehow doesn’t produce fireworks, it’ll be the rare exception.
By Week 7, I was already half-seriously suggesting we manipulate the CFN FPM win probabilities to give both teams an even 50/50 shot. As a staff, we joked about tweaking it to 60/40 since Ole Miss is clearly the better team this year.
Yes, Ole Miss is the superior squad, and on paper, the Rebels should run away with this one. But I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Mississippi State manages to keep it close, as they’ve done a few times before. And if Jaxson Dart performs like he did in the final minutes against Florida, the Rebels might not even be safe from these Bulldogs.
That late-game stretch from Dart was as rough as it gets. In his last two drives, he threw two interceptions, nearly had a third picked off, and saw another wiped out by a penalty. It was a shocking collapse, to say the least.
I doubt Dart suddenly lost his touch, but it’s definitely a storyline worth monitoring as we head into Friday.
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Mississippi State, meanwhile, has the offensive firepower to test Ole Miss’s defense. Freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance, and the Bulldogs’ offense hasn’t been the problem this season. They can find some success here, no question.
The defense, however, makes pulling off the upset a tall—almost impossible—order.
Ultimately, while the Rebels are out of playoff contention, I don’t expect them to “lay an egg” (pun fully intended) on Black Friday. The talent gap between these two teams is simply too wide for Mississippi State to overcome.
Unless Dart repeats last week’s late-game struggles, Ole Miss should win comfortably. That said, this is the Egg Bowl—it’s going to be weird, and I think Mississippi State covers. Grab the line before it moves.
Prediction: Ole Miss 44, Mississippi State 20
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